516
FXUS64 KOUN 270007
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
707 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- LESS HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
TODAY'S FORECAST IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
NEARLY THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW SPOTS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN
FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA - BRYAN AND LOVE COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR - AS
OF 1730 UTC. BUT ANY NEAR-FRONTAL HEAT RISK SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER
END RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THIS MONTH, ESPECIALLY AS A BAND OF
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.
THOSE SHOWERS MAY SEE SOME PERIODIC INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 2,500
J/KG. HOWEVER, DUE TO POSTFRONTAL NORTHEASTERLIES THROUGHOUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S) INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH, NO PARAMETERS JUMP OFF THE PAGE
FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SPORADIC STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OCCASIONAL PULSE-TYPE CORES
WITH AROUND-1-INCH HAIL AND COLLAPSING DOWNBURST WINDS.
WOULD EXPECT A LULL IN ANY PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE EVENING DUE
TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE LLJ LAYER. WITH THAT SAID, POPS
INCREASE AGAIN NEAR AND JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WITH ANOTHER DECAYING LINEAR SYSTEM/REMNANT MCV MOVING IN FROM THE
HIGH TERRAIN. LOWS WILL TEND TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TONIGHT THAN
THEY WERE LAST NIGHT.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
SIMILAR TO TODAY, TOMORROW'S FORECAST WILL START OFF WITH AND BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTH AND MOTION OF ANY MCVS THAT GET GENERATED OFF
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS FOR ANY COMPLEXES THAT DEVELOP TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A WHILE, BUT A RELATIVE LULL NEAR NOON DOES SEEM
LIKELY. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER IN THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED IN THE FAR WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA.
ONCE AGAIN, MODERATE BUT OVERWHELMING INSTABILITY, MODERATE BUT NOT
OVERWHELMING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS (30-35 DEGREES), AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL ALL COMBINE TO KEEP ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP FROM
GETTING TOO UNRULY.
THE WEATHER SIGNAL GETS A LITTLE BIT MORE UNCLEAR MOVING INTO
FRIDAY. THIS IS IN PART BECAUSE THE RIDGE STARTS TO EXPAND A LITTLE
BIT EASTWARD. THIS WILL REDUCE (THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY TOTALLY
ELIMINATE) THE PROBABILITY OF CONTINUING THE DAILY STORM PATTERN
WE'VE SEEN SO MUCH OF RECENTLY. FORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER TO RESPOND; WHILE WE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, IT WON'T BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS HOT AS THE FIRST 3 WEEKS
OF THIS MONTH.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE WARMING TREND THEN CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND AS TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT RETURNS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SEE THE RETURN OF
HEAT HEADLINES, AFTER A COUPLE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS, AS AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN TOP 105 ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A TRANSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE
A GRADUAL PROCESS THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. SO OUTSIDE
OF FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WHICH MAY SEE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES, THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS EACH DAY OF 100-
105.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING. THERE WILL BE SOME
POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST THURSDAY
MORNING WITH CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.
THERE ARE ALSO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. GUSTY VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. APART
FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 95 72 95 / 0 10 10 0
HOBART OK 72 96 70 98 / 20 20 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 100 72 99 / 10 20 10 10
GAGE OK 66 93 66 96 / 40 50 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 71 92 70 93 / 0 10 0 0
DURANT OK 73 99 72 98 / 20 20 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...26
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