557
FXUS64 KOUN 271753
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- NEAR-NORMAL HIGHS AND LOW STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THIS MORNING'S STORMS AND CLOUD COVER HAVE LED TO A COOLER-THAN-
ANTICIPATED START TO THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THIS THROWS A WRENCH INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. AN
MCV CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE, BUT STORM REDEVELOPMENT ALONG IT IS RATHER
UNLIKELY DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE SURGING OUTFLOW. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
OVERTURNED AIRMASS, SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPED
IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WHILE INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
IN THE REGION FOR STORM MAINTENANCE, LITTLE TO NO FORCING EXISTS AND
TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR IS EXTREMELY MEAGER.
WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN? WELL, MAY WELL END UP BEING ONE OF THE
NICEST DAYS OF AUGUST ACROSS OUR AREA. WHERE THE SUN COMES OUT IN
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA, THERE WILL BE TIME THIS
AFTERNOON FOR HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 100. BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
TEMPS IN THE 90S AND MAYBE EVEN SOME HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY. LOW
STORM CHANCES EXIST SOUTHEAST OF THE MCV AND WHERE ONGOING
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERCOLATE.
TONIGHT LOOKS MUCH QUIETER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING LITTLE/NO ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER COMING OFF OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S, THOUGH UPPER 60S ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-40.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN BREAKDOWN OCCURS TOMORROW AS THE 594
DECIMETER 500 MB HEIGHT MOVES EASTWARD FROM ROUGHLY AMARILLO TO
CLINTON. THIS EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
A FORECAST THAT IS DRY ON ESSENTIALLY ALL CAM GUIDANCE BOTH DURING
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TOMORROW. WINDS WILL FINALLY START TO VEER
BACK TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SOUTHERLIES BY THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THEIR RETURN TOWARD THE HEATWAVE THAT
HAS DOMINATED THIS AUGUST, BUT NOT QUITE AS INTENSE YET - GENERALLY
AT OR A LITTLE BELOW 100.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE CLOSER TO OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
CORRESPOND TO A RETURN TO BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE, MOSTLY TO COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES, AND TEMPERATURES RISING
TO OR WELL ABOVE 100.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
BY SUNDAY, MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SUNDAY MAY
ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF HEAT RELATED HEADLINES. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES DO NOT WARM AS MUCH AS THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, SO
EVEN THOUGH THE AREA WILL SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS, CURRENTLY DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE EXTREME TEMPERATURES THAT WERE SEEN THIS LAST WEEK.
IN ADDITION, THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD, SO BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
JUST ENOUGH INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA HOT AND DRY. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WHERE
PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO
OCCUR.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH
SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP AIDING IN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE PLAINS. BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN EXPANDS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH WILL PUSH ANY
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FARTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX TO SOME DEGREE. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT ANY
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDER REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY ALONG/EAST OF I-44. SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD GENERALLY SHIFT BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY THEN EASTERLY INTO
THE EVENING, WITH MOST SLUGGISH CHANGE EXPECTED AT KSPS/KLAW
BEHIND THE EARLIER PASSAGE OF A CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 97 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 72 100 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 102 74 104 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 68 98 73 102 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 69 93 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 72 100 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09
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