759
FXUS64 KOUN 280718
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
218 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 215 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST DAYS THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD
OF THE CONVECTION, THE COMPLEX HAS GENERALLY BEEN WEAKENING THE
LAST COUPLE HOURS. INCREASING DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED
WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO THE COMPLEX DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS
STATE LINE. THERE IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE THE REMNANTS WILL IMPACT
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING. EVEN SO, ANY IMPACTS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, AN ~597 DAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE--CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES--WILL
BEGIN TO EXPAND AND MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY IN TANDEM WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
RETURN TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ESSENTIALLY--PUTTING
IT ALL TOGETHER--THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL COMMENCE A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STILL ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE’S INFLUENCE, THE HOTTEST WEATHER
WILL HOLD OFF FOR ANOTHER DAY. EVEN SO, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S DEG F, WHICH IS ABOVE-NORMAL
FOR LATE AUGUST.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
HOTTER WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF THE
~594 DAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 100S DEG F BOTH DAYS WITH A HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIALLY
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND VERY DRY FUELS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED--ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 20%.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH ONLY SLIGHT WOBBLES IN
ITS LOCATION FORECAST.
BIAS-CORRECTED PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (I.E., THE NATIONAL BLEND
OF MODELS) INDICATES VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE 10TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE FORECAST, WHICH INDICATES HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S DEG F.
THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN WILL ALSO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO WORSEN ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. AS A RESULT, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY MOST DAYS WITH THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THAT ARE COMBINED
WITH VERY DRY FUELS. THE TOTAL FIRE ENVIRONMENT (WEATHER + FUELS)
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO INITIAL ATTACK FIRES TO LOW-END LARGE
FIRES.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND SOME
MORE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS SPREADING SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 97 72 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 98 71 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 101 72 103 75 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 97 71 101 74 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 93 70 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 101 71 101 74 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26
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