619
FXUS64 KOUN 300350
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (WEST) THROUGH
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
H500 ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING OVER OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION, LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
DIABATIC, DOWNSLOPE, AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES
AND HEAT INDICES UP TO NEAR 105 THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST OF THESE
READINGS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA (E.G.,
WOODS, ALFALFA, MAJOR COUNTIES) AND WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF THE RED
RIVER IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS.
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 81. OBSERVED DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A BIT LOWER THAN NBM, AND HAVE LOWERED
AFTERNOON VALUES. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE WARMER AS WELL,
WITH LOWS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-70'S.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
THE MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN THE HEAT AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
(WESTERN OKLAHOMA) ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND MODELED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
LATELY, WE DID LOWER THIS PARAMETER TOWARDS CONSENSUS OF RAW- AND
SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR SUNDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES ABOVE 105 FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
FOR 1PM THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR ON MONDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW (LESSER ON MONDAY) AND ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP WHERE THESE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COINCIDE, WHICH IS FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH
OF I-40 AND WEST OF HWY 81 FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL REMAIN WARM (UPPER-70'S
FOR MANY AREAS).
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NO
EVIDENCE OF ANY IMPACTFUL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NWP.
THE PROBABILISTIC NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) FORECAST HAS
VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH EVEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE-
NORMAL. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S DEG F WILL PERSIST ALL
OF NEXT WEEK. BOTTOM LINE--EXPECT A HEATWAVE NEXT WEEK.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BLOCKING ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT WOULD BRING RAINFALL ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THEREFORE, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH VERY DRY FUELS. THE TOTAL
FIRE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO INITIAL ATTACK
FIRES TO LOW-END LARGE FIRES.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF OK LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE DECREASING AFTER DAYBREAK. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAYTIME WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEST
AND NORTH OF OKC.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 102 78 102 78 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 104 77 105 77 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 104 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 102 75 104 75 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 101 76 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 104 74 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ004>008-
010>013-017>020.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...04
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