580
FXUS64 KOUN 301845
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 145 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT AND DRY FUELS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE WARMTH IS UNDERWAY AS A ~594 DAM
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, HOTTEST CONDITIONS (~103 TO 107 DEG F) ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA, ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND IN A CORRIDOR OF LOCALLY
DRIER AIR. A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING HERE.
A FEW LOCALES ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY MAY ALSO REACH OR
EXCEED THE HEAT HEADLINE THRESHOLD (105 DEG F), THOUGH
SPATIOTEMPORAL CHARACTER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO AVOID
ISSUANCE OF SUCH PRODUCTS.
FIRE WEATHER ALSO REMAINS ON THE FOREFRONT OF THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DAY-OVER-DAY COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS, AMIDST CRITICALLY DRY FIRE FUELS, WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RANGELAND
FIRE DANGER (RFD) STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE
AREA GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
IT WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME AS WE BEGIN A NEW WORK WEEK, WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH AND AFTERNOON/EVENING FIRE DANGER.
WHILE THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOOKS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD A
BIT DURING THIS TIME, IT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF
SENSIBLE CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT WILL PERSIST, WITH
WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED IN AGRICULTURAL ZONES OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NEAR THE RED RIVER. MONDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE LOWEST HEAT RISK
THIS WEEK, WITH AN INFLUX OF GREATER SURFACE MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTING TO MORE WIDESPREAD >105 DEG F HEAT INDICES BY TUESDAY
AND BEYOND.
WHILE PRESSURE-GRADIENT-DRIVEN WINDS DON'T LOOK TO BE QUITE AS
STRONG ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SOME DEGREE OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL IT RAINS AGAIN. SPEAKING OF,
NIL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST UNTIL NO EARLIER THAN
THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NWP IN AGREEMENT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF OUR
WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
90S TO THE MID 100S DEG F. WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND DRY FUELS,
FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND
WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING THE RIDGE MAY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
TO ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH LESS
HOT WEATHER. FOR EXAMPLE, THE PROBABILISTIC NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS (NBM) FORECAST HAS AROUND AN 8 TO 15 DEG F SPREAD BETWEEN
THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY. THE 10TH
PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS IN THE UPPER 80S (NORTH) TO
UPPER 90S (SOUTH) DEG F. HOWEVER, THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO AS OF
NOW IS THAT THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
LLWS IS THE MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
FOR KWWR, KPNC, AND KSWO. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
GUSTY SSW WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 77 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 74 102 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 76 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 75 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>008-010>013-
017>020.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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