404
FXUS64 KOUN 312315
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT AND DRY FUELS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHILE TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PRIOR DAYS, WE'LL
STILL BE UPWARDS OF 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER-90S TO
MID-100S DEG F) FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST. A RELATIVELY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW THE 105 DEG F
THRESHOLD FOR A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS GUSTY THROUGH
SUNSET COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/SUNDAY, AS THE GRADIENT IN SURFACE
PRESSURE RELAXES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
UPDATES, GIVEN HOW CRITICALLY DRY FIRE FUELS ARE ACROSS THE
REGION, EVEN MORE MUTED COMBINATIONS OF FIRE WEATHER FACTORS (RH
~20% & WIND GUSTS <25 MPH) DESERVE UTMOST ATTENTION UNTIL OUR NEXT
WETTING RAINFALL EVENT OCCURS. WHILE OUR PRIMARY FOCUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, WHERE
A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER (RFD) STATEMENT RUNS FROM 2 PM TO 7 PM,
EVERYONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE FIRE PREVENTION PRACTICES.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
THE MIDWEEK, WARM LOW-LEVEL AIRMASSES WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED UPPER-
90S TO LOW-100S HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE WIDESPREAD >105 DEG F HEAT
INDICES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEVERAL
SMALL/BRIEF RAIN CORES MAY EMERGE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO
NIL.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, MOST ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE LOWEST AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE, CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA, IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MODEST STRENGTHENING WHILE
APPROACHING THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTAL BORDER OVER THE COMING 18-24
HOURS. A STRONG CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FEATURE DRIFTING
NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING INTO THE MIDWEEK, THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION EXISTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN RED RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE, THE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BE FEATURE THAT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEPING A REMNANT VORTICITY
MAXIMA/WEAKNESS IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
OTHERWISE, HOT WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NWP IN AGREEMENT THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. AS A MATTER OF FACT,
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY FURTHER
AMPLIFY/STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE PROBABILISTIC NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) FORECAST DOES
NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EVEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GENERALLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL INFLUENCE. NOTE THAT GIVEN THE
LOWER SUN ANGLE AND SHORTER DAYS, OUR NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN QUICKLY DECREASING OVER THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS. FOR EXAMPLE,
OKLAHOMA CITY IS DOWN TO 89 DEG F AND WICHITA FALLS IS DOWN TO 93
DEG F TODAY. THEREFORE, EVEN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WOULD STILL RESULT
IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. S TO SSE WINDS
GUSTS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY GUSTIER S WINDS TUESDAY MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 74 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 72 101 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 75 102 74 99 / 0 10 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...08
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