541
FXUS64 KOUN 012309
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
609 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT AND DRY FUELS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THE AXIS OF A ~594 DAM UPPER RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO INCH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH, TROPICAL
STORM EDOUARD IS MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTAL
BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS EAST
TEXAS, ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY, IN
THE UPPER-90S TO LOW-100S, AND COOLEST UNDER DENSER PATCHES OF
DIURNAL CUMULUS. MORE NOTABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION, WITH AT LEAST
SUBTLE INFLUENCE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE TEXAS GULF
COAST, WILL BEGIN TO ESCALATE HEAT INDICES (NEAR 105 DEG F) THIS
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
WHILE NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY,
A FEW SMALL/BRIEF/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
LOWER CLOUD HEIGHTS AND A STEADILY MOISTENING VERTICAL PROFILE.
OWING TO MODEST SURFACE WINDS/LIMITED GUSTINESS AND NOT-AS-LOW
(>20%) RELATIVE HUMIDITY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
PROBLEMATIC THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER, WITH THE CRITICALLY DRY
NATURE OF FIRE FUELS, PREVENTATIVE STEPS SHOULD STILL BE EXERCISED
TO AVOID UNINTENTIONAL IGNITIONS.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THE HEAT RISK LOOKS TO ESCALATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDWEEK, AS
MOISTURE FLUX CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 105-110 DEG F
RANGE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE RETURN OF HEAT
HEADLINES, LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD TREK WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN
THIS, CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL IMPACT (NAMELY MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL)
LOOK TO BE LOW ACROSS OUR AREA. WE WILL STILL CARRY VERY
LOW/WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER MENTIONS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, THOUGH ACCUMULATED RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE VERY
LIGHT (NO MORE THAN 0.1-0.25" IN A FEW SPOTS).
LIKE TUESDAY, WHILE NO DISCERNIBLE/FOCUSED AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER
IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT, THE DRY NATURE OF FUELS MAKES ANY POTENTIAL
BURN PERIOD A CONCERN IF IGNITIONS OCCUR IN PROBLEMATIC AREAS. THE
DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS/LOCAL DRYING
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING WEST BACK OVER THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO HOT, HUMID, AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
HIGHS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S/TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES EACH AFTERNOON WITH
105+ HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA.
IN TERMS OF THE WEATHER PARAMETERS, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, WITH THE VERY DRY VEGETATION, THE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE FA RECEIVES
RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITONS TO CONTINUE.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20KTS. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF HIGH-BASED
CU WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 99 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 75 102 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 102 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 73 101 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 75 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 75 99 73 96 / 0 0 20 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ032-036>039-
041>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ085-086-089-
090.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...30
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