488
FXUS64 KOUN 022312
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
612 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 605 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
- OUR HEATWAVE WILL PERSIST WITH UNSEASONABLY HOT & DANGEROUS HEAT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- VERY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST &
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BUT OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT AND DRY FUELS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND MOST OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS DUE TO HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 TO 108 DEGREES EXPECTED. WILL
BE EXPANDING THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM I-40 NORTHWARD.
INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EDOUARD WHICH CAME ASHORE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS HAD CREATED A
MOISTURE GRADIENT BISECTING OUR OKLAHOMA/TEXAS FORECAST AREA WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS & MUGGIEST AIR TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD AT LEAST SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON STILL EXPECTING
UNSEASONABLY HOT AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS WITH
OUR SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WILL TREND THIS AFTERNOONS MAXT ONLY
SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN NBM USING THE CONSMOS NUDGED AT 50%. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE HEAT INDICES WELL IN
TRIPLE DIGITS BETWEEN 100 TO 108 DEGREES WITH THE LATTER EXTREMES IN
THE ADVISORY AREAS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD THE ADVISORY NEED TO BE EXPANDED. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OUR AREA ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DECAYING TROPICAL
SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
OUR MAIN UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN IN A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN U.S. WITH DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WEST AND A SECOND TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE U.S. NEW
ENGLAND STATES. THE ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS WILL REMAIN PINCHED BETWEEN
THESE TWO CIRCULATIONS WITH THE RIDGING STRONGEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE U.S. SOUTHEAST. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING
THIS PATTERN TO CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM KEEPING OUR HEATWAVE &
MOSTLY DRY PATTERN PERSISTING KEEPING OUR ONGOING DROUGHT AT SEVERE
TO EXCEPTIONAL INTENSITIES. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THURSDAYS HEATING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS
DECREASE GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR DUE TO THE CLOSED UPPER
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SHIFTING SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST.
LATEST NBM RUN APPEARS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS "LESS HOT" AIR
TEMPERATURES TREND EAST OF I-35 FOR THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY
SEE DENSER STRATIFORM CLOUD COVER DURING THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON FURTHER IMPACTING SOLAR HEATING THERE. AS FAR AS RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY, WILL MAINTAIN A 15-20% CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA DUE THE WEAK SURFACE LOW REMNANTS
OF "EDOUARD" COMING UP FROM EASTERN TEXAS. BY THE AFTERNOON
INCREASING BUT WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH BUT
ALSO ADD BARELY MENTIONABLE POPS FOR ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECTING STRONG
SURFACE MIXING AND UNCAPPED ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY AMPLE FOR WEAK CONVECTION WHICH SOME OF
THE CAMS ARE SUGGESTING. AS FAR AS HEATING HEADLINES FOR THURSDAY,
WILL HAVE A SIMILAR HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DUE TO HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 105-107 DEGREES EXPECTED.
HEATWAVE CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND PERHAPS HOTTER EAST OF I-35 AS
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RETURNS FURTHER WEST
INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS. WILL LIKELY SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT
ADVISORY FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE HOT, HUMID, AND DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE AREA AND VALUES
OF 105F TO 110F ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA EACH DAY. HEAT HEADLINES
WILL ALSO LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO
NEXT WEEK.
THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING ELEVATED. HOWEVER, AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED, THE VERY DRY FUELS WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO WILDFIRES
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL THE AREA RECEIVES SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL. WITH THAT IN MIND, EVERYONE NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO BE
CAUTIOUS AND TAKE STEPS TO PREVENT FIRE STARTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. SITES ACROSS THE WEST WILL SEE SOME INCREASE
IN WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD WILL
RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT DUA AND POSSIBLE INTO OUN/OKC TERMINALS
JUST AFTER SUNRISE. WILL KEEP A SHORT TEMPO FOR THE POSSIBILITY IN
CENTRAL OK, BUT WILL KEEP LOWER CEILINGS AT DUA THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING THEM TO VFR BY MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF HIGH-BASED CUMULUS AND SOME INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 74 103 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 103 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 73 102 72 102 / 0 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 75 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 73 95 73 98 / 10 20 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ006-007-011-
012-017>019-024-025-034>039-041-043>048-050>052.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
018>020-024>026-032-036>039-041>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ085-086-
088>090.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...30
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