034
FXUS64 KOUN 050646
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
146 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 146 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- ONGOING HEATWAVE CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN GIVEN HOT TEMPERATURES AND
ONGOING DROUGHT/VERY DRY FUELS.
- VERY LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, BUT OTHERWISE DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WE OPEN UP THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH, YOU GUESSED IT,
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY! OUR AREA WILL REMAIN BURIED BENEATH A
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE, WITH UPPER-90S TO MID-100S HIGHS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION (HOTTEST SOUTHWEST). A RESIDUAL DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN AMBIENT CONDITIONS, WITH >105 DEG F CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY, AND ALONG/EAST OF THE I-44/35
CORRIDORS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THESE AREAS FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM.
WHILE OUR FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA, WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON VERY LOW (~10%) CHANCES FOR A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS OF
OKLAHOMA. THE LATTER AREA LOOKS TO HAVE RELATIVELY HIGHER ODDS,
ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING (WEAK) MID-LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS
EAST TEXAS IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME. THE MOST CONCERNING
ASPECT OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES, WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATED RAINFALL.
WHILE THE FIRE WEATHER CATEGORY WILL REMAIN "LOW" THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY, WITH GENERALLY >20% RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND MODEST WINDS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT PROBLEMATIC
WILDFIRE IGNITIONS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN FUEL DRYNESS. THIS MESSAGE
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNTIL WE CAN GET A WETTING RAINFALL EVENT OR
TWO OVER THE COMING WEEKS.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
NOT MUCH OF A SURPRISE AT THIS POINT, BUT HOT/HUMID AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER ROLLS ON FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MAXIMUM
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF >105 DEG F HANG AROUND ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WHEN ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA.
WE WILL ONCE AGAIN MONITOR VERY LOW (<20%) POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AS ANOTHER WEAK ("BACKDOOR")
SYSTEM/FRONT APPROACHES THIS AREA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING FOR THOSE ENGAGING IN
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHILE NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY A CONTINUED HOT
AND DRY PATTERN, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY, A
PATHWAY FOR MORE CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS, INCLUDING AT LEAST LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, IS COMING INTO BETTER VIEW INTO THE
LATE WEEK.
THIS COMES AS A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM ROUNDS THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
TRAILING FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS 1.) HOW STRONG
THE RESULTANT FRONT IS (I.E., ABLE TO HELP FOSTER PRECIPITATIVE
CHANCE?), AND 2.) HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES IT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. FOR NOW, WE MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA. NOT SEEING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN,
THOUGH DAYTIME HIGHS MAY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW THOSE EARLY IN
THE WEEK.
EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD (12TH
ONWARD), THOUGH MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING THE DOMINANT REGIONAL SYNOPTIC FEATURE DURING THIS TIME.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT SATURDAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
AFTERNOON HIGH-BASED CU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 100 75 99 76 / 0 0 10 0
HOBART OK 102 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 102 75 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 102 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 99 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 100 75 100 75 / 10 10 20 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ005>008-011>013-018>020-023>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...30
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