353
FXUS64 KOUN 201826
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
126 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES AND RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALL MORNING
AND CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LIFT SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
(1500-2500 J/KG) IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS
EVENING BUT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OK WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX, ONE MORE HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FA.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN
NORTH TX NEAR OR JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
RAIN CHANCES IN NW PARTS OF THE FA MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX
THAT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THEN COULD MOVE INTO NW
PARTS OF THE FA MONDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS WELL BUT MAINLY IN
SOUTHWEST OR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THESE CHANCES ARE MAINLY
DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA IN THE UPSLOPE
FLOW AND THEN MOVE INTO THE FA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID
80S IN NORTHERN OK TO THE LOW/MID 90S ALONG THE RED RIVER. COOLER
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. NORTHERN OK COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE MID/UPPER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID WEEK, THE RIDGE IS WEAKER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY AND WE STILL HAVE THE MORE SEASONABLE LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES APPROACHING IN
THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW. THESE WAVES WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN AT THE SURFACE
PRODUCING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BEHIND THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE CHANCES FOR STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BETWEEN 18-10Z
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WITH TEMPO GROUPS ENDING BY 04Z.
HOWEVER WILL END STORM CHANCES EARLIER BY 22Z ACROSS TERMINALS
KSWO & KPNC IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECTING HIGH-BASED CEILINGS
WITH ANY STORMS ALTHOUGH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN RAIN COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF BELOW VFR CATEGORIES AS WELL AS VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW. AFTER 04Z COULD SEE BROKEN
STRATUS PRODUCING LOW CEILINGS COMING DOWN FROM KANSAS RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CATEGORIES ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 85 64 85 / 40 10 10 0
HOBART OK 67 90 65 88 / 10 10 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 93 66 90 / 20 20 30 20
GAGE OK 61 83 60 83 / 10 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 63 83 60 81 / 20 10 10 0
DURANT OK 70 95 68 94 / 70 30 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68
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