214
FXUS64 KOUN 211838
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
138 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 134 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT AS HOT.
- AT LEAST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY, WITH HIGHER
CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY, TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEEL A LITTLE CLOSER TO MID SEPTEMBER, BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LESS CONFIDENCE REMAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP(NORTH) HAS LINGERED INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS CONTINUES,
SOME LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 70S. MEANWHILE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE,
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL(IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S).
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A HINT IN SOME OF THE MODELS THAT AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AROUND 850MB MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW CHANCES
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST TEXAS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH
TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DIP
INTO THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND 60S ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS BOTH A WESTERN TROUGH AND BAJA
DISTURBANCE MOVE EAST AND NORTH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
SOUTHWEST U.S. UNFORTUNATELY THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY WILL
KEEP THE TROUGHS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. A FEW LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.
THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
SETTLES INTO EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, KEEPING ANY RAIN
CHANCES CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGE MAY
BE CENTERED JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY.
THE RIDGING WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB,
ALTHOUGH NOT AS SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE PREVIOUS WEEKS, BUT IT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
LATER IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE ZONAL. VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 80S TO MID 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. ONE OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK BETWEEN TERMINALS
KPNC & KSWO BUT PERHAPS CLOSER TO KSWO WHERE A TEMPO IS IN PLACE
THROUGH 21Z ALTHOUGH A LOWER PROBABILITY IMPACTING KPNC. LOWERED
CEILINGS FROM STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH 21Z ACROSS OUR
TERMINALS GENERALLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR REDUCING
THOSE TERMINALS TO AN MVFR CATEGORY. OTHERWISE AFTER 21Z ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z.
AFTER 12Z STRATUS PRODUCING LOWERING CEILINGS MAY RETURN IMPACTING
SOME OF OUR TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY
AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 86 63 89 / 20 20 0 10
HOBART OK 66 88 65 91 / 30 30 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 92 68 95 / 20 20 0 10
GAGE OK 60 84 61 86 / 20 10 0 20
PONCA CITY OK 61 83 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 68 96 68 96 / 0 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68
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