607
FXUS64 KOUN 221839
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
139 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 138 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT
NOT AS HOT AS RECENT WEEKS.
- LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY ACROSS WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX THROUGH THURSDAY, INCREASING AND EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
A SMALL AREA OF LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON(WHICH SHOULD SOON DISSIPATE) IS WHAT REMAINS OF A
BROKEN BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY. ELSEWHERE, THE AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH MODEST EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AND ALONG WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ANY AFTERNOON OR
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA. ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO
THE 60S. A FEW UPPER 50S APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AND THE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS
WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BY THURSDAY WE DO SEE THE RIDGE BECOME SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT TO OUR
EAST AND SOUTHEAST, WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY TO PUSH FURTHER EAST. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS OUR WEST
AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHERE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR, BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST COAST
DEEPENS. THIS WILL HELP BEND THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH
CHANCES THEN EXPANDING ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THAT SAID, VEERING/DRYING FLOW AND WEAKENING
FORCING MAY LEAD TO DWINDLING SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE AS ACTIVITY
MAKES IT INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE 90 DEGREES
AREAWIDE, WITH SOME PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OK INTO WESTERN NORTH TX
POTENTIALLY GETTING BACK CLOSE TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK, ESPECIALLY
IF SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ENDS UP MORE LIMITED.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST
THROUGH 11Z. THERE IS A 30% PROBABILITY FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO MOVE ONLY OVER TERMINAL KCSM IN THE NEXT
TWO HOURS (18-20Z) BUT EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO STAY WELL TO
THE SOUTH. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 11Z
REDUCING CEILINGS AT LEAST AN MVFR CATEGORY AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR TWO NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER (KDUA & KSPS). DID
GO LOWER WITH CEILINGS FOR POTENTIAL IFR CATEGORY AT 3 OF OUR
TERMINALS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA (KPNC, KSWO, & KWWR). A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION UP IN THE U.S. GREAT LAKES REGION
SHOULD KEEP SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
TERMINALS AT 10 KTS GUSTING TO 15 KTS WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING 5-10 KTS AFTER 00Z. AFTER 15Z SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER IN
DIRECTION OUT OF THE EAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 64 91 69 92 / 0 20 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 94 70 95 / 0 20 10 10
GAGE OK 61 86 65 88 / 0 20 40 50
PONCA CITY OK 59 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 69 96 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
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