067
FXUS64 KOUN 250634
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
134 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 132 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX TODAY, EXPANDING EAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
- MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT NOT AS HOT AS RECENT WEEKS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF RIDGE
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE HAS DOMINATED THE
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, BUT
CONTINUING TODAY WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH SOME SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER CHANCES TO EXTEND
FURTHER EAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS LATER TODAY.
WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO
RESIDE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL UPPER
FORCING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE EARLY IN THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. BY AFTERNOON, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST, ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL NOT BE STRONG, SCATTERED ACTIVITY, SOME
OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE TOP OF QUICKLY EXPANDING
RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH NBM POPS APPEAR A BIT
AGGRESSIVE, STILL PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE THIS WAVE WILL MOVE BY EARLY SUNDAY LEAVING US IN A LULL
AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
IN ADDITION, THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING THE HEAT BACK TO MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S(NORTH)
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES(RED RIVER) BY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. LARGE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, HURRICANE POLO OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTH
EARLY IN THE WEEK. ITS REMNANT MOISTURE LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH AS WE INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AS WELL.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BEYOND THIS POINT AS MODELS DIVERGE WITH
REGARDS TO TIMING. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO SHOW A CLOSED
LOW, THE EURO IS FARTHER SOUTH AND BECOMES A BIT MORE CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW AND IS THEREFORE SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE EURO'S TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF POLO ALSO
ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BEFORE EJECTING
OUT BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MORE
SPRING-TIME SEVERE WEATHER LOOK. EITHER WAY LOOKS TO BRING THE BEST
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE
SOME TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WHICH WILL INTERMITTENTLY IMPACT KSWO AND KPNC
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT, WHICH COULD
IMPACT KWWR AND KCSM. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST.
SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW
MORNING (KWWR) WITH MVFR CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHERLY DIRECTION,
BUT MAY BECOME VARIABLE/CHAOTIC NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 89 70 90 71 / 10 30 30 40
HOBART OK 89 69 91 69 / 20 50 30 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 95 70 98 70 / 10 20 20 30
GAGE OK 81 64 87 62 / 70 70 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 83 67 85 66 / 40 40 50 50
DURANT OK 93 68 96 69 / 0 0 0 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...10
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