886
FXUS64 KOUN 091632
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY.
- DRY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY.
- RAIN & STORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COOLER/SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
SENSIBLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNINSPIRING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY - UNLESS, OF COURSE, YOU ENJOY HOT TEMPERATURES!
BROAD/WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS A MORE PROMINENT RIDGE BEGINS TO
ESTABLISH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER-80S
TO LOW-90S ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT UNSEASONABLY HOT AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
LOOKS TO BECOME FURTHER AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE PLAINS/OZARKS, AS TWO
PROMINENT UPPER SYSTEMS (INCLUDING THEN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
ISAIAS) AFFECT EACH COAST. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT WARMER (MORE
PREVALENT 90S READINGS) AND WINDIER COMPARED TO SATURDAY. GUSTS
>30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH
TEXAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
WHILE WETTING RAINS LATE LAST WEEK HAVE HELPED TO LESSEN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, DAY-OVER-DAY HOT AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH <25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGER
DAYTIME WIND GUSTS, WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR LOCAL/SPORADIC
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD (MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS).
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
MONDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO FEATURE LOW END (~10-30%) POTENTIAL FOR
RECORD-SETTING HEAT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER, AS THE PREVIOUS UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT REGIONAL CONTROL OF SENSIBLE
CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME NOTABLY WARMER BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES +5-10 DEGREES
(NEAR 70 DEGREES) COMPARED TO LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE BY THE TIME WE GET TO TUESDAY
AS PACIFIC-BASED SYSTEMS, INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON,
BEGIN TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE AREA. WHILE OUR CURRENT GRIDDED
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE NEXT WEEK ON
TUESDAY (MID-90S), THE COMBINATION OF A MORE MUTED LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RESPONSE, INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST LOW (~20-30%)
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/STORMS CASTS SOME DOUBT ON ACHIEVING THESE WELL
ABOVE-AVERAGE CONDITIONS.
BETTER/MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS LOOK TO
MATERIALIZE BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AS A PREVIOUSLY CLOSED
UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO OPEN AND ACCELERATE
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PLAINS. GIVEN A SEASONABLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
ADVECTION PATTERN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM, AND WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES, WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS TIME AS WELL.
A MORE NOTABLE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED COOLDOWN LOOKS OCCUR A
BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, NOW FOCUSED ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED/TIMING OF THE FRONT, SOME CONTINUED
RAIN/STORM CHANCE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS, VARIABLE AT TIMES,
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MODERATELY TOMORROW BY MID-DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AT KCSM, KWWR, KPNC, AND KSWO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 60 90 65 92 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 93 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 59 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 61 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 62 88 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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