856
FXUS64 KOUN 101625
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1121 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN & STORMS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. STRONG-
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
- WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY LATER
NEXT WEEK, DETAILS REGARDING TIMING/LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHILE IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE CONUS, WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING BOTH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN RATHER BENIGN - WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM TOWARDS 90 DEGREES WITH SUNNY
SKIES. AN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND (UP TO 30 MPH) IS
FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY, AS A
STRONGER LEE CYCLONE/GRADIENT IN SURFACE PRESSURE EMERGES TO OUR
NORTHWEST.
WE EXPECT TO SEE PERIODS OF HUMIDITY-DRIVEN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WIND
GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE NORTH/WEST, LIMITING
THE TIME/SEVERITY OF IMPACT, THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WITH OPEN FLAMES SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS AND EXERCISE FIRE PREVENTION
STRATEGIES. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) IS IN EFFECT
FROM 2 PM TO 7 PM.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND
BEGIN A NEW WORK WEEK, WITH LIMITED WEATHER IMPACTS. SUNDAY WILL
AGAIN FEATURE LOW-90S HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN ONE-
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CATEGORY MAY AGAIN BE OBSERVED ON A LOCAL BASIS ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.
THE REGIONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION BY MONDAY, AS
SEVERAL POLAR OR TROPICAL-ORIGINATING SYSTEMS BEGIN TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA. DESPITE THIS, WE ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
DRY ON MONDAY, WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN PEAK DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
(MORE PREVALENT LOW TO MID-90S READINGS) AS A MORE NOTABLE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RESPONSE IMPINGES ON THE AREA.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEMS STILL LOOK TO BRING ABOUT MORE
CHANGEABLE WEATHER, INCLUDING THE RETURN OF RAIN/STORM CHANCES,
THOUGH FOCUSED AREAS AND TIMING REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY IS REASONABLY HIGH, WITH A LEAD WAVE
PERTURBATION EXPECTED TO INSTIGATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN A CORRIDOR STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PROVIDED
INCREASING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADING AN UNSEASONABLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER, POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG-
SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE REGARDING SPECIFICS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/SEVERITY OF
PRECIPITATION DROPS DRAMATICALLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN EVOLVES
BY THIS TIME. EVEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY RATHER
DIVERGENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS, WITH THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWING A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN COMPARED TO A CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE
MEAN (I.E., TAKING CONSENSUS FROM THREE PRIMARY ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS).
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOU? WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
EVENTUALLY COOLER/MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY IN SOME
CAPACITY ACROSS THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK, FORECAST SPECIFICS
(I.E., TEMPERATURES, % CHANCE AND AMOUNT OF RAIN, ETC.) MAY CHANGE
NOTABLY OVER COMING UPDATES, SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK BACK AS A MORE
UNIFIED SOLUTION BEGINS TO EMERGE.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR
MOST TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT WINDS AT KDUA. MARGINAL
LLWS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN 35 KNOTS. OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TODAY WITH SCATTERED
CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 90 71 91 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 63 91 71 93 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 64 93 71 94 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 62 90 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 64 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 64 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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