740
FXUS64 KOUN 120312
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1012 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1007 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
MORE SEASONABLE/COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN & STORMS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY, AND EXPAND ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN TODAY AS A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDS GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA).
FORECAST FIRE PARAMETERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ARE:
- RH: 25-33%, REASONABLE WORST CASE: 22% (LOWEST OUT WEST,
INCREASING TOWARD SE OK)
- WIND: 18-25 MPH, GUSTS TO 35 MPH (HIGHEST IN NW OK)
- ERCS: 70-80TH PERCENTILE (EXCEPT PARTS OF NW AND NORTH CENTRAL
OK, WHICH ARE CLOSER TO 65TH PERCENTILE)
OVERALL, THE CURRENT RFD SEEMS WELL MAPPED TO CAPTURE THE GREATEST
FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS BREEZY
WINDS KEEP US SOMEWHAT MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
IT'LL BE BREEZY AGAIN ON MONDAY, THOUGH A TAD LESS THAN SUNDAY. THE
SLIGHTLY DECREASED WINDS PLUS INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL
HELP KEEP FIRE WEATHER AT BAY.
HEAT, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, INCREASING ON TUESDAY.
AND, WHILE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX, WE'LL STILL HAVE A DECENT
BREEZE ON TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE ARRIVES UNDER SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND A LEAD WAVE
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIATE IN THE PANHANDLES AND MAKE THEIR WAY EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE.
DAY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE PRIMARY MESSAGE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINY/STORMY PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY A DROP
IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MORE TRADITIONAL FALL-LIKE READINGS.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND INTENSIFYING SUBTROPICAL JET LOOK TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD. IT IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT
THAT THAT PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MAY
BE EMBEDDED/WEAKER SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE SUBTROPICAL JET, AS
OPPOSED TO THE LARGER POLAR-ORIGINATING TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS.
THIS ONLY ACTS TO INCREASE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
BETTER PRECIPITATIVE CHANCE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE PICTURE
BECOMES EVEN MUDDIER WHEN ADDING THE ARRIVAL OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. AT
LEAST EPISODIC ROUNDS/AREAS OF RAIN AND STORMS ARE LIKELY DURING THE
PERIOD, AND THOSE WITH OUTDOOR OBLIGATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK
BACK IN AS THESE PERIODS OF GREATER COVERAGE ARE IDENTIFIED FOR
YOUR AREA(S) OF INTEREST.
NOT ALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME IN THE FORM OF BENIGN FALL
SHOWERS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING
AND STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
EVENTUALLY, AS A STRONGER/FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST, A REINFORCED FRONTAL
INTRUSION IS LIKELY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. FOR NOW,
THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR BY FRIDAY, WITH THE RETURN OF NEAR TO
POSSIBLY BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THIS TIME.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDUA MONDAY EVENING
AS LOWER CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. LLWS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AT MOST TAF SITES. S TO SE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S
AND SW MONDAY REMAINING BREEZY/GUSTY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 70 92 73 91 / 0 0 0 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 69 92 71 89 / 0 0 0 30
PONCA CITY OK 70 91 72 92 / 0 0 0 20
DURANT OK 68 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...25
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