173
FXUS64 KOUN 130645
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
145 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- REMAINING UNSEASONABLY HOT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH COOLER/MORE
"FALL-LIKE" TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING EXISTS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
THE BEGINNING OF A STRETCH OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL KICKOFF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE HAZARDS SUCH AS RECORD HEAT, SEVERE
WEATHER, AND FLOODING WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALREADY SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL HELP GET
WIDESPREAD UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
BY SUNRISE. IN FACT, THIS HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL LIKELY CAUSE
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL 3 CLIMATE SITES THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, OKC IS FORECAST TO REACH AROUND 90F, WHICH
WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD TEMPERATURE OF 90F SET BACK IN 1938.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY WILL FOSTER
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5
INCHES (WEST) TO OVER 2 INCHES (EAST) ARE EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON. TO PUT THIS INTO PERSPECTIVE, THE DAILY MAXIMUM PWAT
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ABOUT 1.66 INCHES, MEANING THAT WE
ARE LIKELY TO SEE RECORD-BREAKING PWAT VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY,
WITH HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE TWO AREAS TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING: A DRYLINE ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM INTO OUR AREA WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, OWING TO A BELT 50-60
KTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH, AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE
INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AFTER SUNSET, THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL RAMP UP, CREATING MORE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. RECENT CAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF STORMS WILL WEAKEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET, ANY ONGOING
STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
OR TWO.
CONTINUOUS HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH, WILL FOSTER A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THURSDAY. WHERE THAT CORRIDOR SETS UP, AREAS ALONG IT
MAY RECEIVE 3-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY. CURRENT
MODEL DATA WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS CORRIDOR WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE
NEAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, BUT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, MAY SEE THAT CORRIDOR LINE UP MORE CLOSELY
WITH I-44. NEVERTHELESS, FLOODING (POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING) WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES.
ADDITIONAL LIFT ATTENDANT TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH, WILL HELP TO
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLE.
THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT HIGHER THETA-E
AIR NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING,
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
STORM THAT MOVES INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
A TORNADO OR TWO.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY, AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A HIGH CONFIDENCE
(60-80%) CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW 60F ON FRIDAY
ACROSS AREAS FROM NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, THERE
IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW 60F ON FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO GET DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS, AND INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A
STEADY WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY, HIGHS WILL
LIKELY GET BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
ADDED NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO KSWO AND KPNC FOR
OVERNIGHT. SHEAR CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE,
BUT THE PROBABILITY WAS A LITTLE LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ELSEWHERE.
STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD NORTH INTO NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 89 73 86 68 / 0 30 80 90
HOBART OK 93 71 85 65 / 10 50 90 100
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 74 93 69 / 10 20 60 80
GAGE OK 93 66 72 58 / 20 50 80 90
PONCA CITY OK 93 70 76 64 / 0 50 100 100
DURANT OK 89 75 92 69 / 10 10 30 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26
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