644
FXUS64 KOUN 140643
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
143 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT PRIMARILY ALONG I-44.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD RISK.
- COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY, WITH WEATHER
BECOMING COOL AND PLEASANT BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY
TODAY, WITH HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO COLORADO BY 00Z THURSDAY, WHICH WILL HELP
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE OX/TX PANHANDLE VICINITY.
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL HELP AID IN CONTINUOUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL FOSTER VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS WEDNESDAY,
FLOODING RISK WILL RAMP UP STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN FACT,
OUN'S 00Z SOUNDING HAD 2.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT),
WHICH WAS A DAILY RECORD. THESE RECORD-BREAKING PWAT VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. THE OVERALL SEVERE
RISK DURING THE MORNING SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS, AND CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE DECAYING LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY IN THE MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL BE
SITUATED SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ALL HAZARDS.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP AFTER SUNSET, ESPECIALLY ANY LINE
SEGMENTS OR SUPERCELLS. TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS AN INCREASING LLJ WILL MODIFY
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE FLOODING RISK WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY IF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. 00Z CAM GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST A FINAL LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A WINDOW
BETWEEN 03-09Z WHERE THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL FAVOR
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THIS LINE OF STORMS, IF THIS LINE CAN
MATERIALIZE.
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, 4-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS) WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ACROSS A NARROW CORRIDOR.
WHERE THAT CORRIDOR SETS UP WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE/DURATION OF
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND IF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAN
MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS, WITH
SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS, STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL VERY QUICKLY. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS, ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT, IT WILL BE VITAL THAT YOU TURN AROUND SO YOU DON'T
DROWN!
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW
60F ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
WINDS WILL TRY TO REBOUND TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY, SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND INTO THE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AS INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
BE INCREASING EASTWARD IMPACTING ALL OF OUR TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
KDUA IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
TERMINALS KDUA HAS A 30% CHANCE FOR STORMS AFTER 00Z. TERMINALS
COULD DEGRADE TO AT LEAST MVFR OR DOWN TO AN IFR CATEGORY WITH
STORM ACTIVITY PASSING OVER WITH SOME REDUCTION IN CEILINGS BUT
MOSTLY VISIBILITIES IN TO HEAVY RAIN. A COLD FRONT NEARLY STALLED
ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE LINE MAY PUSH INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 06-12Z SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND IT.
HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE MORE CHAOTIC/VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND GUSTY ACROSS MOST OF OUR TERMINALS DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL LIKELY FORM DUE TO THE STORM ACTIVITY. THERE
IS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WHICH
MAY IMPACT TERMINALS EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY AT THAT TIME
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR WHERE NON-CONVECTIVE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 83 68 80 49 / 100 90 90 50
HOBART OK 83 66 79 50 / 90 100 90 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 70 86 54 / 50 70 90 70
GAGE OK 76 59 74 43 / 90 90 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 79 65 79 47 / 100 100 90 20
DURANT OK 93 70 89 58 / 20 20 20 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OKZ005>029-033>038.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...68
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page