287
FXUS64 KOUN 141704
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT PRIMARILY ALONG I-44.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD RISK.
- COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY, WITH WEATHER
BECOMING COOL AND PLEASANT BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY
TODAY, WITH HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO COLORADO BY 00Z THURSDAY, WHICH WILL HELP
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE OX/TX PANHANDLE VICINITY.
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL HELP AID IN CONTINUOUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL FOSTER VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS WEDNESDAY,
FLOODING RISK WILL RAMP UP STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN FACT,
OUN'S 00Z SOUNDING HAD 2.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT),
WHICH WAS A DAILY RECORD. THESE RECORD-BREAKING PWAT VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. THE OVERALL SEVERE
RISK DURING THE MORNING SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS, AND CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE DECAYING LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY IN THE MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL BE
SITUATED SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ALL HAZARDS.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP AFTER SUNSET, ESPECIALLY ANY LINE
SEGMENTS OR SUPERCELLS. TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS AN INCREASING LLJ WILL MODIFY
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE FLOODING RISK WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY IF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. 00Z CAM GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST A FINAL LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A WINDOW
BETWEEN 03-09Z WHERE THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL FAVOR
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THIS LINE OF STORMS, IF THIS LINE CAN
MATERIALIZE.
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, 4-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS) WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ACROSS A NARROW CORRIDOR.
WHERE THAT CORRIDOR SETS UP WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE/DURATION OF
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND IF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAN
MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS, WITH
SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS, STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL VERY QUICKLY. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS, ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT, IT WILL BE VITAL THAT YOU TURN AROUND SO YOU DON'T
DROWN!
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW
60F ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
WINDS WILL TRY TO REBOUND TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY, SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND INTO THE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AS INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHILE WE'RE SEEING SOME CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. ADDITIONALLY,
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY DUE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 80 49 59 / 90 90 50 0
HOBART OK 66 79 50 60 / 100 90 30 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 86 54 63 / 70 90 70 10
GAGE OK 59 74 43 57 / 90 20 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 65 79 47 59 / 100 90 20 0
DURANT OK 70 89 58 67 / 20 20 40 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ005>029-033>038.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...14
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