000
FXUS64 KOUN 150644
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
144 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 137 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-40.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD RISK.
- COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY, WITH WEATHER
BECOMING COOL AND PLEASANT BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
THURSDAY. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED
OVER 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR WEST
OF I-35, HAVE RECEIVED 6-12 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THESE AREA WILL
CERTAINLY EXACERBATE THE FLOODING CONCERNS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. AS FAR AS THE SEVERE CONCERN
THROUGH THE MORNING, IT WILL BE LIMITED TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND ALONG THE RED RIVER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE OVERALL
SEVERE RISK IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, WITH
GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40. THESE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S
(NORTH) AND 50S (SOUTH). HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 60 F, AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW
40S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR
FROST POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DESPITE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK, AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PUSH
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM, IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THUNDERSTORMS, WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT THE WINDS FROM FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY TOMORROW, WITH
GUSTY WINDS IN THE FRONT WAKE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 47 58 39 / 100 10 0 0
HOBART OK 76 48 60 37 / 80 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 51 61 40 / 90 40 0 0
GAGE OK 69 42 57 32 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 76 45 58 36 / 80 0 0 0
DURANT OK 88 54 64 44 / 60 80 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
033>042-044>046-050.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PMCDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...13
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