047
FXUS64 KOUN 151710
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-40.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD RISK.
- COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY, WITH WEATHER
BECOMING COOL AND PLEASANT BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
THURSDAY. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED
OVER 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR WEST
OF I-35, HAVE RECEIVED 6-12 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THESE AREA WILL
CERTAINLY EXACERBATE THE FLOODING CONCERNS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. AS FAR AS THE SEVERE CONCERN
THROUGH THE MORNING, IT WILL BE LIMITED TO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND ALONG THE RED RIVER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE OVERALL
SEVERE RISK IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, WITH
GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40. THESE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S
(NORTH) AND 50S (SOUTH). HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 60 F, AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW
40S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR
FROST POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DESPITE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK, AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
IFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR SOME
AREAS AS THE AXIS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOW TO ADVANCE
SOUTHEASTWARD. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST, BUT SUSPECT
IT COULD TREND LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOMORROW MORNING,
BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH VFR CEILINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 47 58 39 59 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 48 60 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 51 61 40 61 / 40 0 0 0
GAGE OK 42 57 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 45 58 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 54 64 44 65 / 80 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
017>020-022>042-044>046-050.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...01
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