102
FXUS61 KPBZ 150011
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
711 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES. DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT LAIN LINGERING IN THE AREA TO EXIT EAST OVER THE COMING
HOURS
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THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY DIVING ACROSS OHIO AND
GENERALLY WEAKENING. ENERGY WILL BE FLEETING THIS SYSTEM TO A NEW
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNRISE. AS SUCH ORGANIZED
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE COMING HOURS.
HOWEVER, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PATCHES OF
DRIZZLE AND THICK LOW OVERCAST STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. CONTINUED CLOUDY AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH CHANGE IN AREA TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY
REPORT IN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CURRENT VALUES.
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRYING AND WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY AND LASTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
- ISOLATED, LOW-PROBABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
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MID-LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY MIDDAY FRIDAY, VEERING
FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
AND LIGHT LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL PROBABILITY IS LOW, THOUGH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ARE NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH AND ACROSS THE RIDGES
WITH UPSLOPING. THE MORE SENSIBLE IMPACT OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD HELP RETURN DRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES, HEIGHT RISES SHOULD BOOST HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE AVERAGE ON FRIDAY, WARMING ANOTHER
DEGREE OR SO ON SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
BY SUNDAY WITH A MODEST BOOST TO WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND
- RAIN RETURNS TUE/WED WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES THROUGH LATE WEEK
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH A LATE WEEK SYSTEM
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ENSEMBLES SHOW A BETTER AGREEMENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR A
FLATTENED RIDGE OVERHEAD AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY,
ENDING UP NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY.
GREATER UNCERTAINTY ARISES BY TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO MIDWEST. THIS WEAKENING WAVE MAY BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL US AS ENSEMBLES HINT AT BLOCKING WITH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINING ANCHORED SOMEWHERE NEAR NM TO TX AREA.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST BY LATE WEEK,
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SYSTEM, WHICH COULD BRING SNOW CHANCES TO THE AREA,
HOWEVER, OTHER SOLUTIONS (E.G. WEAKER WAVE) SHOW HIGHER
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME. DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
CLOSELY TIED TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE KEPT CLOSE
TO NBM MEAN VALUES FOR NOW.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ORGANIZED RAIN LOOKS TO BE OVER FOR ZZV, HLG AND MGW. PIT, AGC AND
BVI ARE EXPECTED TO SEE DRIZZLE TAPER IN THE COMING HOURS. RAIN WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHWEST AND CLOSER TO THE RIDGES.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY IFR THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS PROBABILITIES FOR <1000 FEET CIGS ARE LARGELY
50-70% THROUGH 18Z SAVE FOR LBE (WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIP <1000 FEET
NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY) AND ZZV (WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RISE >1000 FEET
NEAR NOON FRIDAY). OUTSIDE OF ZZV AND LBE, IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY SMALL
IMPROVEMENTS BEING MADE AREA-WIDE AS WE MOVE LATER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK....
PROBABILITIES FOR IFR CIGS QUICKLY BEGIN TO DECLINE
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AS HEIGHT RISES ACCELERATE. ALONGSIDE THIS,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT TO ERODE OUR IFR THEN MVFR CIGS. THIS MAY
TAKE SOME TIME THOUGH, WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AREA- WIDE PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CIGS
DIP BELOW 40% FOR THE FIRST TIME NEAR 21Z SATURDAY AND A RETURN
TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND COULD
BRING RETURNED RESTRICTION CHANCES. AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES,
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ON TUESDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY/AK
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...RACKLEY
AVIATION...AK
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