105
FXUS61 KPBZ 170045
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
745 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY BUT DREARY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES RETURN ON TUESDAY, WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER.
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OVERCAST STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A STOUT
POST-FRONTAL INVERSION. RECENT PIT ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW A
GRADUAL VEERING TREND TO MORE NORTHERLY BETWEEN 850-800 MB
WHICH EXPLAINS THE LOCALIZED BREAKS IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY EAST
OF PITTSBURGH, BUT ANY BREAKS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AND
GENERAL OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME GREATER ENSEMBLE SPREAD COMES INTO PLAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN COVERAGE
AS FLOW WEAKENS AND TURNS SOUTHERLY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE.
STILL, WITH GENERALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE-NORMAL. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIVER
VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- QUICK SHOWER CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
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THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BACK FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, RESULTING IN
INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AND HELPING TO BREAK AND LIFT THE CLOUD
DECK THROUGH THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A 5-10 DEGREE
BOOST IN AFTERNOON HIGHS, WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S.
A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE PA RIDGES,
BUT LOW-PROBABILITY CHANCES ELSEWHERE. LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD
EXIT BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
DESPITE COOLING 850S, BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER
BREAKS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES GAIN ANOTHER ~5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN RETURNS TUE/WED WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES THROUGH LATE WEEK
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH A LATE WEEK SYSTEM
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ENSEMBLES SHOW FAIRLY HIGH CONSISTENCY THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC
LOW PRESSURE COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A ROUND OF RAINFALL AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A CROSSING COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ANOTHER FEW DEGREES ABOVE MONDAY (10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE), PUTTING MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE LOWER
60S (UPPER 50S NORTH OF PITTSBURGH).
MORE SIGNIFICANT BREAKDOWN IN THE FORECAST OCCURS IN THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. GENERALLY, MODELS SHOW A
MORE POTENT WAVE/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL US BY
WEDNESDAY AND DIVING OVER THE EAST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WOULD BRING AN INITIAL
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION.
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM THE TIMING, STRENGTH, AND
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. TWO CLUSTERED SCENARIOS
REMAIN: A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND THEREFORE WEAKER/SLOWER
TROUGH PROGRESSION, OR LESS AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH QUICKER,
DEEPER TROUGHING. HOWEVER, PROBABILITY FOR THE LATTER (AND
COLDER) SOLUTION IS INCREASING. THERE REMAINS A BIMODAL
DISTRIBUTION IN FORECAST ELEMENTS (YIELDING NON-
METEOROLOGICALLY SENSIBLE MEAN VALUES), BUT THE LEFT-MOST PEAK
(COLDER SOLUTION) CONTINUES TO GROW AT EXPENSE OF THE WARMER
SOLUTION.
GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE, HAVE HEDGED TOWARD THE COLDER
SOLUTION. THIS DOES INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FOR THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE
TEMPERATURE DEPENDENT. THE 25-75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD IN TEMPS
ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES. STAY TUNED FOR MORE
DETAILS...
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY,
AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A POST-FRONTAL
INVERSION. THE MOISTURE LAYER IS RELATIVELY THIN, PIT 00Z
SOUNDING SUGGESTS ONLY 200FT TO 300FT AT 870MB.
THE DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY START AFTER
SUNRISE AS WARM AIR ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTH AND AIDING DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT ALL SITES TO ACHIEVE VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z;
FKL/DUJ WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST SITES TO OBSERVE IMPROVEMENTS.
AREAS THAT LOSE STRATOCUMULUS WILL STILL BE COVERED BY A VEIL
OF HIGHER CLOUDS, THANKS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE.
OUTLOOK....
EARLY MONDAY MORNING (AFTER 06Z), A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOWER PROBABILITY RAIN CHANCES AND CEILING
REDUCTIONS (FAVORING NORTHWEST PA).
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOUTH
OF AGC/PIT AND COULD CREATE SOME RESTRICTIONS THROUGH LATE
MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TERMINALS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY/MLB
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...RACKLEY
AVIATION...HEFFERAN/CL
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