788
FXUS61 KPBZ 151652
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1152 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A BRIEF, LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF
PITTSBURGH BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PROBABILITY OF ICE FOR THE LOWLANDS TODAY, AND HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF ICE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
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HAVE REMOVED SEVERAL COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHERE ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE
ALONG THE RIDGES AS WARMER AIR TO THE WEST DRIVES EASTWARD.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
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TONIGHT, IN AREAS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES PRESENTLY POSTED, WARM ADVECTION IS FAVORED TO HAVE
RUN ITS COURSE AT THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING ALL PRECIPITATION TO
RAIN. THERE IS A LOW (10 TO 20% CHANCE) OF FREEZING RAIN
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN TUCKER AND FOREST COUNTIES NUT
THIS TOO FADES AWAY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
BY MONDAY MORNING, PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO THE EAST. WE WILL
NOT STAY DRY FOR LONG AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, ONLY RAIN WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING (40S IN SOUTHWESTERN PA
TO LOWER 50S IN EAST/CENTRAL OH). A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PARTS OF
WESTERN TUSCARAWAS AND COSHOCTON COUNTIES, OH HAVE A LESS THAN
15% CHANCE OF REACHING FREEZING. THE RAIN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY, THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN COOLING INTO
THE 20S-30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
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UNCERTAINTY THEN RAMPS UP QUICKLY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A
SECOND, DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS HOLD IT BACK WITH OTHERS EVEN
KEEPING IT POSITIVE/NEUTRAL TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CEASE AROUND THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN.
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN COOL INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN COOL INTO THE MID-20S BY
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST CONTINUES UNTIL ROUGHLY 12-15Z,
AFTER WHICH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGS
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN,
FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WHICH THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINTRY PRECIP IS ONLY CURRENTLY MENTIONED WHERE PROBABILITIES
FOR AT LEAST A GLAZING OF ICE ARE GREATER THAN 40%, INCLUDING
BVI (40-50%), FKL (40-50%), AND DUJ (80-90%). ELSEWHERE,
PROBABILITIES FOR ICE ACCUMULATION ARE TOO LOW (<30%) TO WARRANT
INCLUSION, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA RIGHT
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. MOST OF THE AREA WARMS ENOUGH BY 16Z TO
TRANSITION PRECIP TO ALL RAIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING DUJ
WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING REMAIN
ELEVATED (>60%) THROUGHOUT THE DAY, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (>80%) IN MVFR CEILINGS COINCIDING WITH
THE RAIN, OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z. THERE ARE ALSO ELEVATED PROBABILITIES (>60%) FOR IFR
CEILINGS TO SETTLE IN BY THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, WITH
THE EXCEPTION TO THAT BEING LBE AND MGW WHERE DOWNSLOPING EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD KEEP THE LOW LEVELS DRY ENOUGH TO HELP
CEILINGS STAY ABOVE IFR. MEANWHILE, PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES REMAINS AROUND 30-50% OVERALL, THOUGH LOCALLY
ELEVATED (60-80%) IN INSTANCES OF HEAVIER RAIN RATES.
PROBABILITIES FOR IFR VISIBILITIES GENERALLY REMAIN LOW (AROUND
OR BELOW 20%), EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OH AND FAR
WESTERN PA WHERE THEY INCREASE TO AROUND 40-60% TOWARDS THE
TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY'S
RAINFALL IS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE AND WINDS SETTLE.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND A SHORT-LIVED RETURN OF VFR ON TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS
BACK TO THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
009-015-016-077-078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ512.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ514.
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...22/MILCAREK/LUPO
LONG TERM...LUPO
AVIATION...CERMAK/88
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