397
FXUS61 KPBZ 151857
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
157 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A BRIEF, LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF
PITTSBURGH BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PROBABILITY OF ICE FOR THE LOWLANDS TODAY, AND HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF ICE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
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HAVE REMOVED SEVERAL COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHERE ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE
ALONG THE RIDGES AS WARMER AIR TO THE WEST DRIVES EASTWARD.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
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TONIGHT, IN AREAS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES PRESENTLY POSTED, WARM ADVECTION IS FAVORED TO HAVE
RUN ITS COURSE AT THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING ALL PRECIPITATION TO
RAIN. THERE IS A LOW (10 TO 20% CHANCE) OF FREEZING RAIN
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN TUCKER AND FOREST COUNTIES NUT
THIS TOO FADES AWAY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
BY MONDAY MORNING, PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO THE EAST. WE WILL
NOT STAY DRY FOR LONG AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, ONLY RAIN WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING (40S IN SOUTHWESTERN PA
TO LOWER 50S IN EAST/CENTRAL OH). A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PARTS OF
WESTERN TUSCARAWAS AND COSHOCTON COUNTIES, OH HAVE A LESS THAN
15% CHANCE OF REACHING FREEZING. THE RAIN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY, THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN COOLING INTO
THE 20S-30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
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UNCERTAINTY THEN RAMPS UP QUICKLY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A
SECOND, DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS HOLD IT BACK WITH OTHERS EVEN
KEEPING IT POSITIVE/NEUTRAL TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CEASE AROUND THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN.
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN COOL INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN COOL INTO THE MID-20S BY
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MAJORITY OF THE REGION HAS BEEN OBSERVING RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF DUJ WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
FREEZING REMAIN ELEVATED (>60%) THROUGH THIS EVENING, LIKELY
RESULTING IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.
THERE ARE ALSO ELEVATED PROBABILITIES (>60%) FOR IFR CEILINGS TO
SETTLE IN OVER A MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH
THE EXCEPTION TO THAT BEING LBE AND MGW WHERE DOWNSLOPING EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD KEEP THE LOW LEVELS DRY ENOUGH TO HELP
CEILINGS STAY ABOVE IFR. THESE CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
REGARDING VISIBILITIES, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR DUJ, LBE, MGW
STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO REDUCE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES FOR
IFR VISIBILITIES GENERALLY REMAIN LOW (AROUND OR BELOW 20%),
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OH AND FAR WESTERN PA WHERE THEY
INCREASE TO AROUND 40-60% TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AND A SHORT-LIVED RETURN OF VFR ON TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS BACK TO
THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
009-015-016-077-078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ512.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ514.
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...22/MILCAREK/LUPO
LONG TERM...LUPO
AVIATION...CERMAK/88/LUPO
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