045
FXUS61 KPBZ 160052
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
752 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A BRIEF, LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF
PITTSBURGH BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PROBABILITY OF ICE FOR THE LOWLANDS TODAY, AND HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF ICE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
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HAVE REMOVED SEVERAL COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHERE ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE
ALONG THE RIDGES AS WARMER AIR TO THE WEST DRIVES EASTWARD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXTENDED THROUGH 06Z ALONG I-80.
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UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE
TEMPERATURES AND THE POPS AS THE REST OF THE MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 01Z SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AND DUJ STILL REPORTING
SOME FZRA. THIS IS INCLUDED WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF FREEZING
TEMPS IN THE NORTH ALONG I-80 AND ALSO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PF
INDIANA COUNTY. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE WSWS TO 06Z FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO AT LEAST COVER THE LAST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TONIGHT, AFTER 06Z, IN AREAS ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES PRESENTLY POSTED,
WARM ADVECTION IS FAVORED TO HAVE RUN ITS COURSE AT THE SURFACE
TRANSITIONING ALL PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. THE IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY THROUGH DAWN.
BY MONDAY MORNING, PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO THE EAST. WE WILL
NOT STAY DRY FOR LONG AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, ONLY RAIN WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING (40S IN SOUTHWESTERN PA
TO LOWER 50S IN EAST/CENTRAL OH). A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PARTS OF
WESTERN TUSCARAWAS AND COSHOCTON COUNTIES, OH HAVE A LESS THAN
15% CHANCE OF REACHING FREEZING. THE RAIN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY, THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN COOLING INTO
THE 20S-30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
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UNCERTAINTY THEN RAMPS UP QUICKLY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A
SECOND, DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS HOLD IT BACK WITH OTHERS EVEN
KEEPING IT POSITIVE/NEUTRAL TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CEASE AROUND THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN.
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN COOL INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN COOL INTO THE MID-20S BY
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DOWNSLOPING OVER THE RIDGES HAVE KEPT TERMINALS
CLOSEST TO THEM (MGW, AGC AND LBE) IN A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS.
CIGS HAVE THEN LARGELY DEGRADED AS YOU MOVE NORTHWEST FROM THE
RIDGES WITH VLIFR CIGS NOTED AT BVI AND FKL. IN GENERAL, THE
CURRENT DEPICTION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH TERMINALS CLOSEST TO THE RIDGE RETAINING THE HIGHEST
CIGS AND TERMINALS FURTHER AWAY REMAINING QUITE LOW.
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST EXPECTED TO
LINGER BEHIND THIS. DRIZZLE AND MIST ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
TAPER BETWEEN 08-10Z BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING VIS
RESTRICTIONS.
THIS BREAK IN VIS RESTRICTIONS WON'T LAST FOREVER HOWEVER, AS RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FROM THE WEST BEGINNING NEAR 16Z IN ZZV AND
CLOSER TO 19Z FOR PIT.
AS WE NEAR 00Z ON TUESDAY THE NOSE OF A 40-50KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
BE PRESSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND THIS COULD BRING SOME
LLWS CONCERNS TO AREA TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AND A SHORT-LIVED RETURN OF VFR ON TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS BACK TO
THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ008-009-
015-016-074-076>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ512.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ514.
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...22/MILCAREK/LUPO
LONG TERM...LUPO
AVIATION...LUPO/AK
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