168
FXUS61 KPBZ 211946
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
246 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SUB FREEZING WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY; COLD WEATHER ADVISORY/EXTREME COLD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY/EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT
- THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS INCREASES THROUGH 7PM TODAY;
TRAVEL MAY BE HAZARDOUS IN ISOLATED AREAS
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A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING INTO EASTERN OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON, SNOW SHOWERS AND 25 TO 30 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (0.5 INCHES IN
ISOLATED AREAS; A TRACE TO 0.5 ELSEWHERE). BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
VISIBILITY FROM SNOW CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE 0-3KM CAPE VALUES
RANGE FROM 15J/KG TO 35J/KG ALONG THE FRONT AND COULD TURN INTO
A BROKEN SNOW BANDS. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALSO HAS SOME NOTED
POTENTIAL STRONGER AND NARROW BANDS (REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR
COULD MEASURE 20DBZ TO 25DBZ AT TIMES) BETWEEN 3PM TO 6PM
(INCLUDING PITTSBURGH). IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS
POTENTIAL OUTCOME, SNOW COULD IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ARCTIC OUTBREAK WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURE AND WIND
CHILL CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
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EXTREME COLD CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR UPGRADING ADDITIONAL COUNTIES INTO THE EXTREME
COLD WARNING REMAIN LOW; PROBABILITY OF TEMPS REACHING CRITERIA
VALUES WIDESPREAD IS BETWEEN 25% TO 40%. THE SPREAD OF THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATEST RUN OF THE ENSEMBLES THAT
COVER THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE IS ABOUT 4 TO 6 DEGREES
(BETWEEN -17F TO -23F). FOR THE RIDGES, THE SPREAD FOR THE
APPARENT TEMP IS HIGHER (ABOUT 10 TO 13 DEGREES) DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF LINGERING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATE THIS EVENING. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PITTSBURGH REGION, WIND GUSTS
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO NEAR I-80.
HISTORICALLY, THESE ARE THE NOTED IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
A COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS SEVERE: UNPROTECTED PIPES CAN
FREEZE AND BURST. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE COLD MAY LEAD TO
HYPOTHERMIA. FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES FOR
EXPOSED SKIN.
WE ADVISE CHECKING IN ROUTINELY WITH VULNERABLE FRIENDS AND
FAMILY. EXTREME CARE IS ENCOURAGED FOR THE PROTECTION OF PETS
AND ANIMALS. RESCHEDULING ANY EVENTS, ESPECIALLY THOSE TAKING
PLACE OUTDOORS, IS ALSO ENCOURAGED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES WILL EXIT
THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF A LARGE-SCALE DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY.
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LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE LIKELY
BE COLD, SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS. HOWEVER,
WITH LIGHT WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD, WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA (-10F).
A PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY; MOST LIKELY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.
RIDGING TOWARDS OUR ZONE WILL EJECT THE SHORTWAVE NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY AND ZONAL FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD (AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 20S/TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT) THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IF TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF
A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. THE NBM 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE RANGES BETWEEN LOW-30S (25TH PERCENTILE) TO MID-30S
(75TH PERCENTILE) ON SUNDAY, UPPER-20S (25TH PERCENTILE) TO
MID-30S (75TH PERCENTILE) ON MONDAY.
A FEW LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROJECT A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS COULD IMPACT OUR
PRECIPITATION/SNOW POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY
LOW O THE OCCURRENCE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS ONE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS. THE MAIN
IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY BE THE BITTER COLD
THAT HAS TAKEN HOLD ACROSS THE REGION.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT, BEGINNING BY 19Z OR 20Z IN
EASTERN OHIO, AND THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING,
POSSIBLY REACHING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY 02Z OR SO. IT IS
HERE WHERE HREF PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN A MILE VISIBILITY
ARE HIGHEST, ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT. NEVERTHELESS,
BRIEF DROPS TO IFR VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE IN THESE
SNOW SHOWERS, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS OR SO.
GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SNOW.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS, LIGHT WIND, AND EVEN MORE
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL
RETURN VFR (NEAR 100% PROBABILITY) TO ALL SITES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
RESTRICTION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY WITH THE
LIKELY APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
CLIMATE
A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT WILL CHALLENGE MANY STANDING JANUARY
TEMPERATURE RECORDS. ATTACHED BELOW ARE THE STANDING CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LOCAL SITES. PITTSBURGH HAS A FULL RECORD, WHILE OTHER
SITES ARE PARTIAL RECORDS AND MAY NOT BE FULLY REFLECTIVE OF
HISTORICAL TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 21ST: HIGH MINIMUM LOW MINIMUM
PITTSBURGH, PA 5F (1984) -18F (1985)
WHEELING, WV 12F (2000) -2F (1924)
MORGANTOWN, WV 2F (1985) -18F (1985)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH -8F (1985) -19F (1985)
ZANESVILLE, OH 7F (1985) -22F (1984)
DUBOIS, PA 0F (1985) -22F (1985)
JANUARY 22ND: HIGH MINIMUM LOW MINIMUM
PITTSBURGH, PA 10F (1961) -14F (1936)
WHEELING, WV 11F (2014) -4F (2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV 11F (2014) -5F (1984)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH 5F (1984) -15F (1994)
ZANESVILLE, OH 13F (2014) -11F (2011)
DUBOIS, PA 8F (2013) -11F (1984)
BELOW IS THE LOWEST DAILY HIGH AND DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE
21ST CENTURY. THIS ENCOMPASSES ALL DAYS OF ALL MONTHS RUNNING
FROM JANUARY 2000 TO PRESENT:
HIGH MINIMUM LOW MINIMUM
PITTSBURGH, PA 4F (01/07/2014) -10F (01/17/2009)
(02/20/2015)
WHEELING, WV 5F (01/07/2014) -10F (01/07/2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV 7F (01/07/2014) -9F (01/28/2014)
(01/28/2014) (01/29/2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH 6F (01/16/2009) -18F (01/28/2014)
(01/28/2014)
(02/15/2015)
ZANESVILLE, OH 6F (01/28/2014) -20F (01/29/2014)
DUBOIS, PA 0F (01/07/2014) -17F (02/16/2015)
IN ADDITION, PITTSBURGH HAS NOT SEEN A DAYTIME HIGH BELOW 4F
SINCE JANUARY OF 1994. PITTSBURGH HAS ALSO HAS NOT SEEN 2
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10F SINCE
JANUARY OF 1997. IF YOU EXTEND THIS STATISTIC TO 3 DAYS, YOU
WOULD HAVE TO GO BACK TO FEBRUARY 1899.
THE LAST TIME PITTSBURGH'S MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO -5F WAS DECEMBER 2022. LAST TIME IT WAS BELOW OR EQUAL
TO -10F WAS FEBRUARY 2015. FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF LOWS LESS
THAN OR EQUAL -10F, YOU WOULD HAVE TO GO BACK TO JANUARY OF
1994.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-077.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074-076-
078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-509>511.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ512>514.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...HEFFERAN
LONG TERM...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...CL/AK
CLIMATE...CM
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