384
FXUS61 KPBZ 220524
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1224 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SUB FREEZING WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY; COLD WEATHER ADVISORY/EXTREME COLD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY/EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT
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WITH A BIT OF MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE, A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW ON
THE WEAK COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE 00Z SOUNDING HAD SATURATION BELOW 700MB IN THIS
WAVE, BUT MOST OF THE SNOW FORMATION OVERSHOOTS THE DGZ GIVEN
COLD TEMPERATURES. A PERIOD OF DRY AND FLUFFY SNOW, AND 20MPH TO
30MPH WINDS CONTINUES. AT THE OFFICE, 0.2" OF SNOW WAS
OBSERVED; TOTALS LESS THAN 0.5" ARE EXPECTED AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES. OTHERWISE, THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT REMAIN ON
TRACK. BECAUSE OF COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES, A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON ALL SURFACES.
.. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ..
EXTREME COLD CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR UPGRADING ADDITIONAL COUNTIES INTO THE EXTREME
COLD WARNING REMAIN LOW; PROBABILITY OF TEMPS REACHING CRITERIA
VALUES WIDESPREAD IS BETWEEN 25% TO 40%. THE SPREAD OF THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATEST RUN OF THE ENSEMBLES THAT
COVER THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE IS ABOUT 4 TO 6 DEGREES
(BETWEEN -17F TO -23F). FOR THE RIDGES, THE SPREAD FOR THE
APPARENT TEMP IS HIGHER (ABOUT 10 TO 13 DEGREES) DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF LINGERING CLOUDS AND SNOW LATE THIS EVENING. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PITTSBURGH REGION, WIND GUSTS
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO NEAR I-80.
HISTORICALLY, THESE ARE THE NOTED IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
A COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS SEVERE: UNPROTECTED PIPES CAN
FREEZE AND BURST. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE COLD MAY LEAD TO
HYPOTHERMIA. FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES FOR
EXPOSED SKIN.
WE ADVISE CHECKING IN ROUTINELY WITH VULNERABLE FRIENDS AND
FAMILY. EXTREME CARE IS ENCOURAGED FOR THE PROTECTION OF PETS
AND ANIMALS. RESCHEDULING ANY EVENTS, ESPECIALLY THOSE TAKING
PLACE OUTDOORS, IS ALSO ENCOURAGED.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ARCTIC OUTBREAK WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURE AND WIND
CHILL CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
- CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES WILL EXIT
THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
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LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE LIKELY
BE COLD, SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS. HOWEVER,
WITH LIGHT WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD, WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA (-10F).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF A LARGE-SCALE DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY.
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A PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY; MOST LIKELY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.
RIDGING TOWARDS OUR ZONE WILL EJECT THE SHORTWAVE NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY AND ZONAL FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD (AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 20S/TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT) THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IF TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF
A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. THE NBM 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE RANGES BETWEEN LOW-30S (25TH PERCENTILE) TO MID-30S
(75TH PERCENTILE) ON SUNDAY, UPPER-20S (25TH PERCENTILE) TO
MID-30S (75TH PERCENTILE) ON MONDAY.
A FEW LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROJECT A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS COULD IMPACT OUR
PRECIPITATION/SNOW POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY
LOW O THE OCCURRENCE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ALL TERMINALS SAVE MGW (WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
HIT VFR SHORTLY). VFR, LIGHT WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE 24HR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK... RESTRICTION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
FRIDAY WITH THE LIKELY APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.
CLIMATE
A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT WILL APPROACH SOME JANUARY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS. ATTACHED BELOW ARE THE STANDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOCAL
SITES. PITTSBURGH HAS A FULL RECORD, WHILE OTHER SITES ARE
PARTIAL RECORDS AND MAY NOT BE FULLY REFLECTIVE OF HISTORICAL
TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 22ND: HIGH MINIMUM LOW MINIMUM
PITTSBURGH, PA 10F (1961) -14F (1936)
WHEELING, WV 11F (2014) -4F (2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV 11F (2014) -5F (1984)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH 5F (1984) -15F (1994)
ZANESVILLE, OH 13F (2014) -11F (2011)
DUBOIS, PA 8F (2013) -11F (1984)
BELOW IS THE LOWEST DAILY HIGH AND DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE
21ST CENTURY. THIS ENCOMPASSES ALL DAYS OF ALL MONTHS RUNNING
FROM JANUARY 2000 TO PRESENT:
HIGH MINIMUM LOW MINIMUM
PITTSBURGH, PA 4F (01/07/2014) -10F (01/17/2009)
(02/20/2015)
WHEELING, WV 5F (01/07/2014) -10F (01/07/2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV 7F (01/07/2014) -9F (01/28/2014)
(01/28/2014) (01/29/2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH 6F (01/16/2009) -18F (01/28/2014)
(01/28/2014)
(02/15/2015)
ZANESVILLE, OH 6F (01/28/2014) -20F (01/29/2014)
DUBOIS, PA 0F (01/07/2014) -17F (02/16/2015)
IN ADDITION, PITTSBURGH HAS NOT SEEN A DAYTIME HIGH BELOW 4F
SINCE JANUARY OF 1994. THE LAST TIME PITTSBURGH'S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE WAS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO -5F WAS DECEMBER 2022.
LAST TIME IT WAS BELOW OR EQUAL TO -10F WAS FEBRUARY 2015.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-077.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ074-
076-078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>511.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ512>514.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN/MILCAREK
SHORT TERM...HEFFERAN
LONG TERM...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...22/AK
CLIMATE...
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