503
FXUS61 KPBZ 221128
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
628 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
SUB FREEZING WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TODAY, AND THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
REGION UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY/EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
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EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE ONGOING
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AS THERE WAS
MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST TEMPERATURES WERE BASED
ON 25TH PERCENTILE NBM VALUES BASED OFF RECENT VERIFICATION.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY.
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TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH WIND
CHILLS DIPPING BELOW ZERO AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH LIGHT
WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD STAY BELOW COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA (-10F). LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS 20% OR
LOWER CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS TO HIT -10F OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RANGES BETWEEN 10
AND 30% AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF A LARGE-SCALE DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY.
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A PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY; MOST LIKELY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.
RIDGING TOWARDS OUR ZONE WILL EJECT THE SHORTWAVE NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY AND ZONAL FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD (AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 20S/TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT) THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IF TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF
A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. THE NBM 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE RANGES BETWEEN LOW-30S (25TH PERCENTILE) TO MID-30S
(75TH PERCENTILE) ON SUNDAY, UPPER-20S (25TH PERCENTILE) TO
MID-30S (75TH PERCENTILE) ON MONDAY.
A FEW LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROJECT A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS COULD IMPACT OUR
PRECIPITATION/SNOW POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY
LOW O THE OCCURRENCE.
AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS (WELCOME) WARM
ADVECTION TAKE PLACE. LIGHT WIND WITH A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK... RESTRICTION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY WITH THE LIKELY APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PERIODS OF LOWER CLOUD COVER MAY THEN LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
ANOMALOUSLY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING RECORD VALUES. ATTACHED BELOW ARE THE STANDING
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOCAL SITES. PITTSBURGH HAS A FULL RECORD, WHILE
OTHER SITES ARE PARTIAL RECORDS AND MAY NOT BE FULLY REFLECTIVE
OF HISTORICAL TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 22ND: HIGH MINIMUM LOW MINIMUM
PITTSBURGH, PA 10F (1961) -14F (1936)
WHEELING, WV 11F (2014) -4F (2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV 11F (2014) -5F (1984)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH 5F (1984) -15F (1994)
ZANESVILLE, OH 13F (2014) -11F (2011)
DUBOIS, PA 8F (2013) -11F (1984)
BELOW IS THE LOWEST DAILY HIGH AND DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE
21ST CENTURY. THIS ENCOMPASSES ALL DAYS OF ALL MONTHS RUNNING
FROM JANUARY 2000 TO PRESENT:
HIGH MINIMUM LOW MINIMUM
PITTSBURGH, PA 4F (01/07/2014) -10F (01/17/2009)
(02/20/2015)
WHEELING, WV 5F (01/07/2014) -10F (01/07/2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV 7F (01/07/2014) -9F (01/28/2014)
(01/28/2014) (01/29/2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH 6F (01/16/2009) -18F (01/28/2014)
(01/28/2014)
(02/15/2015)
ZANESVILLE, OH 6F (01/28/2014) -20F (01/29/2014)
DUBOIS, PA 0F (01/07/2014) -17F (02/16/2015)
IN ADDITION, PITTSBURGH HAS NOT SEEN A DAYTIME HIGH BELOW 4F
SINCE JANUARY OF 1994. THE LAST TIME PITTSBURGH'S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE WAS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO -5F WAS DECEMBER 2022.
LAST TIME IT WAS BELOW OR EQUAL TO -10F WAS FEBRUARY 2015.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-077.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ074-
076-078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>511.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ512>514.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN/MILCAREK
SHORT TERM...HEFFERAN
LONG TERM...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...CL
CLIMATE...MILCAREK
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