133
FXUS61 KPBZ 221759
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1259 PM EST WED JAN 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIND CHILLS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE HEADLINE CRITERIA. DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE TODAY WITH LIGHT SNOW RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
WARMER WEEKEND AHEAD.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER CLOUD COVERAGE.
- COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT NOT AS COLD AS RECENT NIGHTS.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO RISE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THEREFORE, THE COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1PM.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE, BUT STRONG 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN A DRY DAY TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN SOME WEAK "WARM" ADVECTION AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASE TO -12 TO -13C AND NBM SUGGESTS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE TEENS SOUTH OF I-80 WHEREAS UP THAT WAY
WE'LL LIKELY HOLD IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER A 5-10 MPH WIND WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THURSDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW RETURNS THURSDAY EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH WIND
CHILLS DIPPING BELOW ZERO AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH LIGHT WIND,
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (-
10F). LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS 20% OR LOWER CHANCE FOR WIND
CHILLS TO HIT -10F OR BELOW OVERNIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. ENSEMBLE SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID- LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION, BUT STILL DRY LOW LEVELS FROM ~800 MB DOWN. THIS
IS GOING TO MAKE IT TOUGH FOR SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. THE NAM IS A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATION OCCURRING AND SUGGESTS A COUPLE
TENTHS POSSIBLE, THOUGH THIS IS LIKELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO. AS A WHOLE, HREF PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IS <20% AREAWIDE. THE BEST SHOT
FOR A COUPLE TENTHS WOULD BE THE RIDGES WHERE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT
MAY AID IN ENHANCED FORCING, THOUGH THE MOISTURE ISSUE STILL
REMAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF A LARGE-SCALE DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
A PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY; MOST LIKELY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.
RIDGING TOWARDS OUR ZONE WILL EJECT THE SHORTWAVE NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY AND ZONAL FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD (AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 20S/TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT) THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IF TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF
A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. THE NBM 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE RANGES BETWEEN LOW-30S (25TH PERCENTILE) TO MID-30S
(75TH PERCENTILE) ON SUNDAY, UPPER-20S (25TH PERCENTILE) TO
MID-30S (75TH PERCENTILE) ON MONDAY.
A FEW LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROJECT A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS COULD IMPACT OUR
PRECIPITATION/SNOW POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY
LOW O THE OCCURRENCE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION HOURS AS (WELCOME) WARM ADVECTION
TAKE PLACE. LIGHT WIND WITH A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED.
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AFTER 12Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR NOW, KEPT MVFR CEILINGS OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR FKL/ZZV, BUT HREF PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CEILINGS APPROACH
THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE RIGHT AT 18Z.
OUTLOOK... RESTRICTION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIKELY APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. PERIODS OF LOWER CLOUD COVER MAY THEN
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
ANOMALOUSLY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING RECORD VALUES. ATTACHED BELOW ARE THE STANDING
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LOCAL SITES. PITTSBURGH HAS A FULL RECORD, WHILE
OTHER SITES ARE PARTIAL RECORDS AND MAY NOT BE FULLY REFLECTIVE
OF HISTORICAL TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 22ND: HIGH MINIMUM LOW MINIMUM
PITTSBURGH, PA 10F (1961) -14F (1936)
WHEELING, WV 11F (2014) -4F (2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV 11F (2014) -5F (1984)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH 5F (1984) -15F (1994)
ZANESVILLE, OH 13F (2014) -11F (2011)
DUBOIS, PA 8F (2013) -11F (1984)
BELOW IS THE LOWEST DAILY HIGH AND DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE
21ST CENTURY. THIS ENCOMPASSES ALL DAYS OF ALL MONTHS RUNNING
FROM JANUARY 2000 TO PRESENT:
HIGH MINIMUM LOW MINIMUM
PITTSBURGH, PA 4F (01/07/2014) -10F (01/17/2009)
(02/20/2015)
WHEELING, WV 5F (01/07/2014) -10F (01/07/2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV 7F (01/07/2014) -9F (01/28/2014)
(01/28/2014) (01/29/2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH 6F (01/16/2009) -18F (01/28/2014)
(01/28/2014)
(02/15/2015)
ZANESVILLE, OH 6F (01/28/2014) -20F (01/29/2014)
DUBOIS, PA 0F (01/07/2014) -17F (02/16/2015)
IN ADDITION, PITTSBURGH HAS NOT SEEN A DAYTIME HIGH BELOW 4F
SINCE JANUARY OF 1994. THE LAST TIME PITTSBURGH'S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE WAS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO -5F WAS DECEMBER 2022.
LAST TIME IT WAS BELOW OR EQUAL TO -10F WAS FEBRUARY 2015.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN/MLB
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...HEFFERAN/MLB
LONG TERM...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...CL
CLIMATE...MILCAREK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page