574
FXUS61 KPBZ 161904
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
204 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TODAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW PULLS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGES WILL SEE WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW. SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM W-E TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
- WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PA RIDGES
- NEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MANY AREAS DUE TO EXPECTED
SHORT-TERM IMPACT OF SNOW, WIND, AND POTENTIAL ROAD ICING
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WV RIDGES
- BLIZZARD WARNING FOR EASTERN TUCKER AND PRESTON COUNTIES
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1040 AM UPDATE...
UPSTREAM SNOW IS OVER-PERFORMING A BIT AS FAR AS
ACCUMULATION/IMPACT TO ROADS. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH
INCREASING WIND GUSTS AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FREEZE LATER, LED
TO ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS NOT
ALREADY UNDER A WINTER HEADLINE IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH
REGION, HAVING PASSED PIT/BTP/FKL. SNOW CHANGEOVER HAS NOT
REACHED OUR EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES YET BUT WILL BEGIN OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN MANAGEABLE SO FAR WITH FROPA...LIKELY HELD
IN CHECK BY FAIRLY STOUT INVERSION NOTED ON PBZ SOUNDING. THESE
GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN BEHIND
THE FRONT, AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND ALLOW MIXING.
745 AM UPDATE...
RAIN RATES HAVE DROPPED OFF AS UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 250MB SPEED MAX LIFTS OUT OF THE
REGION, WITH A SMALL DRY SLOT EVIDENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY IS NOW CROSSING INTO EASTERN OHIO AS SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA; WIND SHIFT
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT ZZV. WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH INTACT FOR
NOW WITH RUNOFF, BUT WILL CONSIDER CANCELLATION PRIOR TO
EXPIRATION TIME FOR AT LEAST A PORTION. SNOW CHANGEOVER WILL
COMMENCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN OHIO.
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO DECREASE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH, AS WARMING WILL BE SLOWER AHEAD OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO INCREASED WIND GUSTS SLIGHTLY IN MOST
LOWLAND AREAS WITH DECENT MIXING EXPECTED WITH AND POST-FROPA.
MODELS DEPICT BEST 3-HOUR MSLP RISES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WV
INTO THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS GENERALLY IN-LINE WITH
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. HOWEVER, WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLE EXPANSION AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. BRIEF ADVISORY-
LEVEL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT, MOST LIKELY TO BE
HANDLED VIA SPS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST PA,
NORTHEASTWARD INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW
STREAKS NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD CLEAR TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING,
ALTHOUGH RATES WILL TAPER OFF AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY.
PROBABILITIES FOR > 0.25 INCHES THIS MORNING GENERALLY DROP
BELOW 50% SOUTH OF I-80.
AS COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH ALL OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO
CHANGE OVER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATIONS POST CHANGE OVER ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR > 3 INCHES RANGE FROM
40-70%. OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES, ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, COMBINING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL
WORK TO BRING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE, WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL
BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE PROBS FOR GUSTS > 40MPH
RANGE FROM 50 TO 100%. THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE
OVER EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WHERE PROBS FOR GUSTS > 50 MPH ARE
CLOSE TO 70%.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER FROPA.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
- WINDS WILL WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON
- MUCH COLDER MONDAY
- DRY AND COLD TUESDAY
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SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ADVISORY CRITERIA
SNOWFALL OF 4-6 INCHES REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS, AND 5-9 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER AND PRESTON
COUNTIES. WITH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER, STEEP LAPSE
RATES, AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. WITH WARNING CRITERIA SNOW AND WIND
GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER, BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS FOR
EASTERN TUCKER AND PRESTON COUNTIES IN WV, AND A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE PA LAURELS. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE CHANGEOVER ON SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR DUE TO
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN NW FLOW.
THE SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OF ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND THE WIND BACKS TO THE W AND SW.
THE HIGH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED FROM -17 TO -21 DEG C.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH DAYTIME HIGH IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
THE 20S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
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MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK, BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW APPROACHES, AND AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ANY SNOW FROM THIS LOW, THOUGH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED WITH MOST TERMINALS SPORTING
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS. VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DROP IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 21Z-00Z.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. IN FKL AND DUJ, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
RESTRICTIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW, EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO BEGIN LIFTING IN EASTERN OHIO.
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIFTED AT ALL TERMINALS, ASIDE FROM FKL AND
DUJ, BY TOMORROW EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SOME SCATTERED LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY CREATE
INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS AT FKL AND DUJ DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT ALL OTHER
TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, REGION WIDE RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007-
008-013-014-020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ009-
015-016-021-022-029-031-073-075-077-078.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-076-078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ001>003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ004-
012-021-509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ510-511-
513.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ512-514.
SYNOPSIS...WM/22
NEAR TERM...22/CL
SHORT TERM...WM/22
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...LUPO
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