103
FXUS61 KPBZ 162044
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
344 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WILL LINGER. THE STRONGEST GUSTS AND
HEAVIEST SNOW IS FORECAST IN THE RIDGES, WHERE A BLIZZARD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOME AREAS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY. COLD
WEATHER WILL LINGER, WITH ANOTHER SNOW CHANCE BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- STEADY SNOW TAPERS, BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
- BLIZZARD WARNING FOR TUCKER, EASTERN PRESTON, AND THE RIDGES
OF FAYETTE AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES
- LINGERING GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH ICY CONDITIONS
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ON ROADS
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POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A
CROSSING COLD FRONT. MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION SNOW CROSSING THE
REGION HAS DUMPED AN INCH OR TWO OF HEAVY WET ACCUMULATION AS IT
CROSSES, THE EXPECTATION OF WHICH PROMPTED AREAWIDE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES. THE HEAVIEST IS NOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES, WHICH WILL DRIVE GUSTY WIND. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND THE EXITING SYNOPTIC SNOW.
THESE WILL BEGIN TO TAPER DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS
COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND AS LOW- LEVEL FLOW BACKS A BIT
TOWARDS THE WEST. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WEST- FACING RIDGES.
WITH HIGHER ACCUMULATION EXPECTATIONS, THE LAUREL RIDGE ZONES OF
FAYETTE/WESTMORELAND HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP INTO THE 5 TO 8 INCH
RANGE, WHICH IS WARNING CRITERIA. WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS AND CONTINUED WIND
GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH LIKELY CREATING SOME BLOWING/WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS, FELT IT PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO
THESE AREAS, AS WELL AS WESTERN TUCKER COUNTY. AWAY FROM THESE
AREAS, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT, PERHAPS LOCALLY A BIT HIGHER IN ANY MAIN BANDS THAT CAN
SET UP.
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS MOST LOWLAND AREAS, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS START TO LOWER. AT LEAST OCCASIONAL ADVISORY-CRITERIA
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE RIDGES, IN THE
BLIZZARD WARNING/REMAINING WIND ADVISORY AREA. GIVEN W/NW FLOW,
THINK THAT THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL MOSTLY OCCUR EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, MORE TOWARDS CENTRAL PA.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY, WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
- WINDS WILL WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON
- DRY AND COLD TUESDAY
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BY 12Z MONDAY, MOST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH AND ALONG THE RIDGES, AS LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE HERE, WHILE LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED IN AREAS TO
THE WEST. THE SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OF ON MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND THE WIND BACKS TO
THE W AND SW. THE HIGH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY.
WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -16C TO -21C SETTLE OVER THE REGION.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S ARE STILL FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE FORECAST BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WIND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL
ALSO DROP WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
THE REGION IF CONFIDENCE IN VALUES -10F OR COLDER INCREASES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
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ENSEMBLES SHOW AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE FORMS NEAR THE GULF COAST AND TRACKS OFF OF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SNOW SHIELD EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF 3" OR MORE OF SNOW
(30-60%) LIES ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLAND RIDGES AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. SNOW COVERAGE PEAKS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLOWLY BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED WITH MOST TERMINALS SPORTING
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS. VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DROP IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 21Z-00Z.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. IN FKL AND DUJ, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
RESTRICTIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW, EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO BEGIN LIFTING IN EASTERN OHIO.
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIFTED AT ALL TERMINALS, ASIDE FROM FKL AND
DUJ, BY TOMORROW EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SOME SCATTERED LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY CREATE
INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS AT FKL AND DUJ DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT ALL OTHER
TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, REGION WIDE RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007-
008-013-014-020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ009-
015-016-021-022-029-031-073-075-077-078.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ078.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ001>003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ004-
012-021-509.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ512>514.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ510-511.
SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...CL/22
LONG TERM...CL/22
AVIATION...LUPO
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