682
FXUS61 KPBZ 170409
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1109 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WILL LINGER. THE STRONGEST GUSTS AND
HEAVIEST SNOW IS FORECAST IN THE RIDGES, WHERE A BLIZZARD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOME AREAS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT
TIMES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY. COLD
WEATHER WILL LINGER, WITH ANOTHER SNOW CHANCE BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT
- BLIZZARD WARNING FOR TUCKER, EASTERN PRESTON, AND THE RIDGES
OF FAYETTE AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES
- LINGERING GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH ICY CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADS AND SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
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THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO SWEEP THROUGH WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS
OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH
SPSS.
.. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD ENHANCEMENT ORIENTED NNW-SSE
SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA, AND RADAR SHOWED QUICK INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE NOW
CROSSING INTO THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SUBTLE
HINTS OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN
INTO NORTHERN IN AND NW OH. BUMMED UP POPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THIS AND
SHOWING MAINLY FLURRIES BUT POCKETS OF 30 DMZ SNOW ROAMING
AROUND ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST.
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THESE WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND AS
LOW- LEVEL FLOW BACKS A BIT TOWARDS THE WEST. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT
ALONG WEST- FACING RIDGES.
THE RIDGES WILL CONTINUE TO GET BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND WNW
WINDS OF 45G64 MPH WERE RECORDED ON CABIN MOUNTAIN IN EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY WV AT 5:00 PM. WV 511 WEB CAMERAS CONFIRM ONGOING WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES, WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS MOST LOWLAND AREAS, DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS START TO LOWER. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUES TO WARRANT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WEST UNTIL 7 PM, AND EAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. SLUSHY UNTREATED ROADS AND SURFACES ARE IN PROCESS OF
FREEZING AND BECOMING HAZARDOUS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY, WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
- WINDS WILL WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON
- DRY AND COLD TUESDAY
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BY 12Z MONDAY, MOST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH AND ALONG THE RIDGES, AS LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE HERE, WHILE LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED IN AREAS TO
THE WEST. THE SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OF ON MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN, AND THE WIND BACKS TO
THE W AND SW. THE HIGH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY.
WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -16C TO -21C SETTLE OVER THE REGION.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S ARE STILL FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ARE FORECAST BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WIND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL
ALSO DROP WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
THE REGION IF CONFIDENCE IN VALUES -10F OR COLDER INCREASES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
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ENSEMBLES SHOW AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE FORMS NEAR THE GULF COAST AND TRACKS OFF OF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SNOW SHIELD EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF 3" OR MORE OF SNOW
(30-60%) LIES ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLAND RIDGES AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. SNOW COVERAGE PEAKS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLOWLY BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WITHIN THESE BANDS YOU COULD OBS VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/2SM AND
LOW IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR CIGS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.
BAND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE BETWEEN 10Z TO 13Z WITH
INCREASE SUBSIDENCE.
WINDS GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT, 25-35 KNOTS, BUT THEN TAPERING SOME MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO ERODE CIGS BEGINNING IN OH AND MOVING EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DISAGREE ON WHERE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS. AT THIS TIME PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CIGS
DROP BELOW 50% FOR ZZV/BVI/PIT/AGC BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
ZZV THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE RETURN OF VFR.
OUTLOOK...
LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, REGION WIDE
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS ANOTHER STORM IMPACTS THE
REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ009-
015-016-021-022-029-031-073-075-077-078.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ004-
012-021-509.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ512>514.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ510-511.
SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CRAVEN/MILCAREK
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...HEFFERAN/AK
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