087
FXUS61 KPBZ 210112
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
812 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN MAINTAIN
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES RETURN
WITH A MONDAY WARM FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 7AM FOR THE RIDGES
- HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS THROUGH EVENING
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RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SW
PA. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL ENHANCE LIFT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT
IN BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/POSSIBLE SQUALLS WITH SOME LAKE
AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE RIDGES WITH 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED.
THE LAPSE RATES DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING AS WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT BEGINS, AND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A
WEAK TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COULD MAINTAIN A FEW MORE
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD END TOWARD MORNING AS THE
TROUGH EXITS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION, AND IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER WV ON
SATURDAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH STRATOCU
ERODING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION, THOUGH
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY, WITH
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
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MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST OF THESE TROUGHS IS PROGGED FOR
THURSDAY, WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED, THOUGH A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THESE
TROUGHS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION IN NW FLOW MAKES IT LIKELY THAT A WEAK LAKE-
ENHANCED BAND OR TWO WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITIONING OF THESE BANDS (IF THEY DEVELOP)
AND THE POTENTIAL RATES WITHIN THEM. IN GENERAL, THE COLD ADVECTION
AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL FOSTER MVFR TO SPOTTY IFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT, WITH VSBY ISSUES TETHERED TO THESE LAKE BANDS.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY ADVECTION IN NW WILL ERODE REMAINING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY LIFT/SCATTER
MVFR STRATOCU DECK.
TOMORROW, EXPECT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO EASE STARTING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WITH CEILING IMPROVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. FKL AND DUJ ARE THE ONLY TERMINALS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING RESTRICTIONS AND PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ074-076-
078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ514.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...LUPO
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