239
FXUS61 KPBZ 210854
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
354 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES RETURN WITH A MONDAY WARM FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
- CLOUDY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY
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UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, IN
RESPONSE TO THURSDAY'S UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST AIDING
IN THE OVERALL INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE. EVEN THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL
BE RISING, WE WILL STILL REST UNDER NW FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE
COLD POOL ALOFT STUCK OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS
WOULD POINT TO THE STRATOCU DECK HANGING AROUND AND TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
- SLOW WARMING TREND
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION, AND IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER WV ON
SATURDAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH THE LAST OF
THE STRATOCU ERODING SATURDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY, WITH
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
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MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST OF THESE TROUGHS IS PROGGED FOR
THURSDAY, WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED, THOUGH A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THESE
TROUGHS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
COLD ADVECTION IN NW FLOW WILL FAVOR MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MORE TERMINALS, BUT
SNOWFALL RATES ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 0.5"/HR (NEAR 100%). SLOW
INTRUSION OF HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ERODE LINGERING
SHOWERS SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH EXACT TIMING FOR THE
END OF FLURRIES IS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE (60-90% LIKELIHOOD) IS THE PRESENCE OF A
MVFR BKN TO OVC STRATOCU DECK THROUGH 00Z. FORECAST TRENDED
TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR A PERIOD OF LATE-DAY VFR CONDITIONS
(~BTWN 20Z-04Z) AS MODEL DEPICTIONS OF SURFACE RIDGING TYPICALLY
DOES NOT FAVOR MVFR MAINTENANCE. AN ADDITIONAL POSSIBILITY IS
FOR PERIODS OF SCATTERING BTWN 20Z-04Z BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH
ENOUGH TO LEAN ON IT. ADDITIONALLY, DIURNAL MIXING AND A
RESIDUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WNW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
15 TO 25KTS.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MODELING
SUGGESTS ROUGHLY A 50/50 PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS FOR MOST
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING RESTRICTIONS AND PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-
076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ510>514.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ514.
SYNOPSIS...WM/22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...WM/22
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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