131
FXUS61 KPBZ 212001
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS WILL END THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWERS END THIS EVENING
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RECENT LOW LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ACARS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER WAS DECREASING FROM
NW-SE ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WELL. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND BOUNDARY LAYER WIND BACKS TO THE W AND
SW.
OTHERWISE, STRATOCU WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
LOCKED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
- SLOW WARMING TREND
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, THOUGH
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED, WITH SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY, WITH
CLOUD COVER INCREASING IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF I 80 IN A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM
ADVECTION, THOUGH MUCH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIP IS
PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER, THOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS BY
MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD
- NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
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MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAINLY RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS, THOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN WITH COLD ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGHS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH READINGS
RETURNING CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTHEAST OFF THE
LAKE. EXPECT SOME IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH.
WITH THAT SAID, INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THIS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN W TO WNW THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS OVER
20 KNOTS AT TIMES BEFORE DECOUPLING TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MVFR CIGS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN
MOST TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING RESTRICTIONS AND PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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