806
FXUS61 KPBZ 222147
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
447 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY, QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE REGION.
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ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A BIT INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS. THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS MANAGED TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL DUE
TO DECENT INSOLATION/LACK OF CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
COUNTIES SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.
POCKETS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW, RAISING DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 20S. WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY PROMPTING RADIATIONAL
COOLING, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL LIKELY CREATE LOCALIZED
COLD SPOTS WITHIN THE VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE; ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT
- PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION; RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW COULD OCCUR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU/I-80
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MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE SHORT TERM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH (ABOVE 70%) THAT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO UPPER-30S FOR EASTERN
OHIO AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM -5 TO -2 DEGREES CELSIUS. ELSEWHERE,
EXPECTED MID TO LOW-30 TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL
AS DRY CONDITIONS.
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH FROM THE
NORTH. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. WITH LINGERING WARM ALOFT, PRECIP TYPE WILL
LIKELY BE RAIN FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. WITH THE 850MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM -1 TO 1 CELSIUS FOR AREAS NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX
(RAIN/SNOW). WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE, SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE A TRACE OR NONE. ACCUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR I-80.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD
- NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
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MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THAT PERIOD, THROUGH THE RIDGES COULD SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH MARGINAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE RAIN COULD
MIX WITH SNOW ELSEWHERE THURSDAY NIGHT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT, THOUGH PRECIP SHOULD BE
ENDING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE REGION, AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME SNOW COULD
ALSO MIX IN, THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.
MID TO UPPER-LVL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH THE
REGION BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES
INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.
OUTLOOK...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING RESTRICTIONS AND
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN/CL
SHORT TERM...HEFFERAN
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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