426
FXUS61 KPBZ 230514
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1214 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY, QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
- LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S EXPECTED FOR
MOST
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PATCHES OF MIDDLE AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT ON NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MIXING
HAS HINDERED THE START OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SLIGHTLY. WITH A
MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT,
WIND MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DECOUPLE. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY DROP A BIT LOWER, BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER
TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE; ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT
- PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION; RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW COULD OCCUR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU/I-80
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MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE SHORT TERM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH (ABOVE 70%) THAT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO UPPER-30S FOR EASTERN
OHIO AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM -5 TO -2 DEGREES CELSIUS. ELSEWHERE,
EXPECTED MID TO LOW-30 TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL
AS DRY CONDITIONS.
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH FROM THE
NORTH. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. WITH LINGERING WARM ALOFT, PRECIP TYPE WILL
LIKELY BE RAIN FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. WITH THE 850MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM -1 TO 1 CELSIUS FOR AREAS NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX
(RAIN/SNOW). WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE, SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE A TRACE OR NONE. ACCUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR I-80.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD
- NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
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MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THAT PERIOD, THROUGH THE RIDGES COULD SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH MARGINAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE RAIN COULD
MIX WITH SNOW ELSEWHERE THURSDAY NIGHT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT, THOUGH PRECIP SHOULD BE
ENDING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE REGION, AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME SNOW COULD
ALSO MIX IN, THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF WARM
ADVECTION THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL STREAM THROUGH THE REGION AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK, BRINGING PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN/CL
SHORT TERM...HEFFERAN
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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