068
FXUS61 KPBZ 231604
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1104 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON TUESDAY, AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CROSSING
LOW PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER AND RISING TEMPERATURE CONTINUE
- TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT WARMING
FOR NORTHERN ZONES.
----------------------------------------------------------------
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AS THE COMBINATION OF INSOLATION AND WEAK
WARM ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAISES TEMPERATURE A FEW MORE
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY'S READINGS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE DEGREE OF THAT RISE, AS SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH WILL
INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE TIMING AND THICKNESS OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO GREATLY IMPACT THIS TREND FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-70. THE LACK OF LIFT OR SURFACE FORCING WILL ENSURE
NO PRECIPITATION OCCURS AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES NORTH OF MICHIGAN. CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT FOSTERS
NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE, BUT HIGHER TERRAIN OR AREAS THAT
CAN STAY MIX MAY SEE LESSER TEMPERATURE DROPS THAN FORECASTED.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FAVORED MONDAY/TUESDAY
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAVOR NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS
------------------------------------------------------------------
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER PERSISTING MONDAY AS
SOUTHERN RIDGING HELPS SHUNT THE LOW NORTH OF MICHIGAN DUE EAST.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL AIDE IN A
HIGH PROBABILITY (NEAR 100%) IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE BUT
LATE DATE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY ACT TO SOFTEN POTENTIAL
RISES.
A LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SE OF WISCONSIN MONDAY
NIGHT AND SWIFTLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK MOISTURE DEPTH AND LITTLE SURFACE LIFT
MEANS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS DRIVEN BY JET ASCENT AND
GENERALLY LIGHT (ONLY 20% PROBABILITY FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 0.10 INCHES), WITH JET POSITIONING FAVORING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER NORTHWEST PA. THOUGH EARLY TIMING MAY
LEAD TO INITIAL PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SNOW, THE FAVORED
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE EVENT IS RAIN AS 850MB TEMPERATURE
(60% LIKELIHOOD) AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE (90% LIKELIHOOD) ARE
FAVORED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SUPPORT DRY
WEATHER BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES, WITH QUICKER THAN FORECASTED WEST TO EAST CLOUD
CLEARING OFFERING POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
-CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RETURN PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY
-MODEL INCONSISTENCY IS NOTED IN THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM
-------------------------------------------------------------------
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING. EARLIER SOLUTIONS OF THE FRONT/TROUGH HAVE
PRECIPITATION ENTERING THE REGION JUST AFTER DAWN THURSDAY. OVER
40% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THURSDAY AS
RAIN FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE
BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX OR SNOW WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. WITH WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
CONSIDERED VERY LOW.
THERE IS A NOTED 10 TO 15 DEGREE SURFACE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN
MODELS DURING THE TIME PERIOD OF SATURDAY. WHAT WILL PROMPT A
COLDER/WARMER SOLUTION WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE OVERALL
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF A WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS. IF MODELS
TREND TO HIGHER HEIGHTENS OVER WESTERN CANADA EXPECTED A COOLER
PATTERN.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH A CROSSING SHORTWAVE.
OUTLOOK...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK, BRINGING PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...FRAZIER
SHORT TERM...FRAZIER
LONG TERM...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...88
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page