084
FXUS61 KPBZ 270107
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
907 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLEARING TREND TONIGHT
- COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
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GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE ZZV VICINITY
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, DIMINISHING WIND, AND
LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE, LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS FURTHER TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
AREOUND 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
- CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM.
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HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ON THURSDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THIS WILL
LIKELY CORRELATE TO A DAY OF MORE HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH EFFICIENT MIXING. SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW MORE DIRECT SUNLIGHT TO DRY THE ENVIRONMENT LENDING TO A DAY
OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY CALMER AND LESS GUSTY.
AN ELONGATED WARM FRONT IS LIKELY TO ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE IS FRONTAL TIMING
UNCERTAINTY WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE EXTENT OF TEMPERATURE RISES AND
THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE SLOWER SCENARIO, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. IN THE FASTER SCENARIO, PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN IN THE
MORNING, WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
- A COOL-DOWN IS MOST LIKELY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO START WEDNESDAY.
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IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PASSING LOW ON SATURDAY, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY TIED TO THE SYSTEM'S TRACK. THE
DEGREE OF WARM ADVECTION AND PRESENCE/LACK OF CLOUD COVER KEEPS THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOW-80S. THIS PATTERN LINGERS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED THE ONSET TIME OF THE MAIN COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO LATE SUNDAY/ EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE LOOKS TO BE OCCURING AHEAD OF THE FRONT (SUNDAY EVENING).
THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DROP AS WE GO
LATER INTO THE NIGHTTIME.
BY MONDAY, THE FORECAST IS DIVERGENT, WITH SOME ENSEMBLES SHOWING
MORE RAIN (EVEN SOME SNOW) IN A SECONDARY LOW, AND SOME SHOWING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. BY TUESDAY, THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO BE COOLER (JUST BELOW AVERAGE), HOWEVER, A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH
PULLS TO THE EAST. LINGERING CLOUDS ARE VFR STRATOCUMULUS AND
ALTOCUMULUS, AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, LEAVING A
CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO EASE AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT BY MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE WIND
DECOUPLES.
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING TRANSITS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WHEN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
ONCE AGAIN IN GOOD MIXING.
OUTLOOK...
RAIN AND RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT. RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY, BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...22/LUPO
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...22/LUPO
LONG TERM...MILCAREK/LUPO
AVIATION...CL
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