803
FXUS61 KPBZ 270453 AAB
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1253 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY TODAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE WARM UP WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST DAY FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS IS
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE.
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NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SLOW 500MB HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE NORTHEAST US SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH EXITS, THE COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THIS SETUP WILL MEAN LOTS OF SUN FOR MOST OF
THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM.
- THREAT FOR RAIN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY.
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A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING, FINALLY CLEARING THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH
THE REGION. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL. WARMER AIR
WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE FRONT AND PUSH
HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT, SHOWER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE, WITH THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE RAIN FREE
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE RAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO THE TIMING AND PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SUNDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
- A COOL-DOWN IS MOST LIKELY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO START WEDNESDAY.
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THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED THE ONSET TIME OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO LATE SUNDAY/ EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE LOOKS TO BE OCCURING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
(SUNDAY EVENING). THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO DROP AS WE GO LATER INTO THE NIGHTTIME.
BY MONDAY, THE FORECAST IS DIVERGENT, WITH SOME ENSEMBLES SHOWING
MORE RAIN (EVEN SOME SNOW) IN A SECONDARY LOW, AND SOME SHOWING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. BY TUESDAY, THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO BE COOLER (JUST BELOW AVERAGE), HOWEVER, A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS WITH MID CLOUD
INCREASING AT THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
INCREASED MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD INCREASE SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH.
OUTLOOK...
RAIN AND RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT. RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY, BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...MILCAREK/LUPO
AVIATION...22
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