889
FXUS61 KPBZ 280052
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
852 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT. PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN EASTERN OHIO ON SUNDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
- A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AFTER 9AM
FRIDAY
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AFTER 10PM FRIDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE
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THE 00Z PIT SOUNDING DEPICTS A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SHALLOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE (NEAR 700MB) WHICH IS ACCOUNTING FOR
SOME PASSING CLOUDS NEAR 6KFT. A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
WARM FRONT, CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES NEAR DAWN WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH INCREASE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS REDUCING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
BETWEEN 10AM TO 12PM FRIDAY, PROBABILITY OF LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EASTERN OHIO WITH THE PASSING WARM
FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID-LEVELS; EXPECTED A TRACE TO 0.25
INCHES. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DUE TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING RANGES
FROM 10-20% ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH GIVEN POCKETS OF 50J/KG TO 150J/KG MUCAPE
AS A DRY SLOT TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
- ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
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RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP SATURDAY MORNING DRY AND QUIET.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS CURRENTLY LOW GIVEN VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL FROM THE PASSING WARM FRONT.
ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THERE IS SOME SPATIAL
AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTION, WHICH IS CAUSING A WIDER
SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. PROBABILITY OF 75F
TEMPERATURES OR HIGH RANGES FROM 70% TO 90% FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
WEST OF PITTSBURGH, WHERE POTENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION COULD
OCCUR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- A COOL-DOWN IS MOST LIKELY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO START WEDNESDAY.
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A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FROM SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY, AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. AT THE MOMENT, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HIGHLIGHTS AT 15% CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN EASTERN OHIO DUE TO A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (SHEAR AND INSTABILITY). PROBABILITY OF SHALLOW CAPE
(100J/KG-200J/KG) AND 35KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WEST OF
PITTSBURGH RANGES BETWEEN 50% TO 75%.
THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE ONSET TIME OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY/ EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND EARLY MONDAY WITH A NOTED LIFTING
MECHANISM.
BY MONDAY, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RAIN A SECONDARY LOW
WILL BRING. AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES, THERE IS UP TO 0.35-0.45
INCH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES. ONCE THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION LATE ON MONDAY, DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FROM
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY, EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BROKEN VFR DECKS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR MOST, WITH RAIN
CHANCES CREEPING INTO EASTERN OHIO IN THE EARLY MORNING.
DECOUPLED WILD PROFILES OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS ROUGHLY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TOWARDS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT RIDES UP THE OHIO
VALLEY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT ONSET TIME OF
RAIN GIVEN A GRADUAL RAMP UP OF FORCING IN DRY AIR, THOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY WAS MOSTLY CAPTURED WITH VCSH. THERE IS CONFIDENCE
IN RAIN FOR ALL PORTS SOMETIME BETWEEN 14Z AND 00Z TOMORROW WITH
A WARM FRONT. THERE IS ROUGHLY A 65% CHANCE THAT CIGS DROP TO
MVFR (MOST LIKELY), A 10% CHANCE CEILINGS REMAIN VFR, AND A 25%
CHANCE CEILINGS BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD NOT BE RULED OUT TOMORROW, GIVEN WE ACHIEVE
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY, BUT THE CHANCES AT ANY INDIVIDUAL
PORT REMAIN 25% OR LESS, WITH NO MENTIONS INCLUDED FOR NOW.
AFTER THE RAIN CLEARS, DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SCATTER IN
THE WARM SECTOR. SOME SHEAR IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT AS A LOW
LEVEL JET SITS JUST ABOVE A SURFACE-BASED INVERSION.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY, BEFORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...22/LUPO
LONG TERM...LUPO
AVIATION...MILCAREK
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