725
FXUS61 KPBZ 281627
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1227 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY
- A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
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A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY ARE NOW SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENSION. THIS, COMBINED WITH A MINOR
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE, MEANS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER, SHOWERS WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING AS THE REGION WILL BECOME
ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE REGION REMAINS ABOVE 50F
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
- MAINLY DRY SATURDAY
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
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AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALSO
INCREASE SUBSIDENCE. MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY ON
SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY. READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LATEST NBM PROBS FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE > 75F ARE GENERALLY GREATER THAN 60% SOUTH OF I-
80. FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE > 79F, THERE ARE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
(45% TO 65%) OVER SOUTHWEST PA, SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. PRESENTLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HIGHLIGHTS A 15% CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN EASTERN
OHIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST NBM, SHOWS THE INCOMING
LOW SLOWER THAN EXPECTED PUSHING THE GREATER PROBABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING THE STRONGER
CONVECTION MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. CURRENTLY, THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR
SEVERE LOOKS TO BE HAPPENING OVERNIGHT. AGAIN, A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- STORM CHANCES MONDAY MORNING.
- A COOL-DOWN IS MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
PUSHING IT BACK TO SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS LIKELY TO COME AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND PERSIST FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
CURRENTLY, THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER IS GREATER ON MONDAY (10%-
30%) THEN ON SUNDAY (5%-20%). THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY, EXPECT A WARMER TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS NORTH. MAINLY LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN AIRPORTS LIKE FKL AND DUJ. WIND SHOULD ALSO GUST FROM
THE SW NEAR 20KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUD CIGS. A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL RESULT IN LLWS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS LOOK UNLIKELY SATURDAY, BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22/LUPO
SHORT TERM...22/LUPO
LONG TERM...22/LUPO
AVIATION...WM
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