900
FXUS61 KPBZ 282211
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
611 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THIS EVENING WITH A PASSING WARM
FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH 9PM
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
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INCREASE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A PASSING WARM FRONT IS DECREASING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE NOTES PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY FALLS BETWEEN 6PM AND 9PM THIS
EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE STILL COULD BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS THAT DRY AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THUNDER CHANCES RAPIDLY
DECREASE AFTER 7PM.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY BETWEEN 10PM TO 3AM, BEFORE A FLUX IN DEEP MOISTURE
ADVANCES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE 925MB WINDS PREVAILING FROM THE SOUTH
AT 40-45KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD, THERE WILL BE A
NOTED INVERSION. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY NOT INCREASE UNTIL LATE
MORNING, ONCE DIURNAL MIXING OVERCOMES THE WARM CAP JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
- MAINLY DRY SATURDAY
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
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AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALSO
INCREASE SUBSIDENCE. MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY ON
SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY. READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LATEST NBM PROBS FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE > 75F ARE GENERALLY GREATER THAN 60% SOUTH OF I-
80. FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE > 79F, THERE ARE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
(45% TO 65%) OVER SOUTHWEST PA, SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. PRESENTLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HIGHLIGHTS A 15% CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN EASTERN
OHIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST NBM, SHOWS THE INCOMING
LOW SLOWER THAN EXPECTED PUSHING THE GREATER PROBABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING THE STRONGER
CONVECTION MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. CURRENTLY, THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR
SEVERE LOOKS TO BE HAPPENING OVERNIGHT. AGAIN, A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- STORM CHANCES MONDAY MORNING.
- A COOL-DOWN IS MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
PUSHING IT BACK TO SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS LIKELY TO COME AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND PERSIST FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
CURRENTLY, THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER IS GREATER ON MONDAY (10%-
30%) THEN ON SUNDAY (5%-20%). THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY, EXPECT A WARMER TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
OCCASIONAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT FKL AND DUJ THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING UNDER MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS, SO INCLUDED A TEMPO
MENTION FOR THIS.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTH
OF THE AREA, LEAVING VFR MID LEVEL CLOUD CIGS IN PLACE. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION TONIGHT, RESULTING IN LLWS. THE JET WILL DIMINISH
SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE, AND MIXING, WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SW
WIND AROUND 20KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR
RETURNS TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...22/LUPO
LONG TERM...22/LUPO
AVIATION...WM
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