564
FXUS61 KPBZ 290138
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
938 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
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A MAJORITY OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
WITH THE WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTH. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE IS
NOTED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH ON THE RADAR. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
LIKELY DISSOLVE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH INCREASE SUBSIDENCE.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY BETWEEN 10PM TO 3AM, BEFORE A FLUX IN DEEP MOISTURE
ADVANCES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
DESPITE 925MB WINDS PREVAILING FROM THE SOUTH AT 40-45KTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD, THERE WILL BE A NOTED
INVERSION. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH LATE
MORNING, ONCE DIURNAL MIXING OVERCOMES THE WARM CAP JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
- MAINLY DRY SATURDAY
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
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AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL
SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALSO
INCREASE SUBSIDENCE. MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY ON
SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY. READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LATEST NBM PROBS FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE > 75F ARE GENERALLY GREATER THAN 60% SOUTH OF I-
80. FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE > 79F, THERE ARE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
(45% TO 65%) OVER SOUTHWEST PA, SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. PRESENTLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HIGHLIGHTS A 15% CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN EASTERN
OHIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST NBM, SHOWS THE INCOMING
LOW SLOWER THAN EXPECTED PUSHING THE GREATER PROBABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING THE STRONGER
CONVECTION MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. CURRENTLY, THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR
SEVERE LOOKS TO BE HAPPENING OVERNIGHT. AGAIN, A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- STORM CHANCES MONDAY MORNING.
- A COOL-DOWN IS MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
PUSHING IT BACK TO SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS LIKELY TO COME AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND PERSIST FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
CURRENTLY, THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER IS GREATER ON MONDAY (10%-
30%) THEN ON SUNDAY (5%-20%). THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY, EXPECT A WARMER TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH, WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE WARM SECTOR. OF THE LOW, SAVE A COUPLE HOURS OF LINGERING
MVFR AT FKL AND DUJ. SATELLITE SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CLEARING WITH
BROKEN MID-LEVEL DECKS FILLING IN OVERNIGHT. AS THE SURFACE
DECOUPLES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP, 40KTS TO 50KTS OF SHEAR
IS EXPECTED IN A LOW JET OVERNIGHT, BEFORE THE MAIN AXIS DRIFTS
NORTH INTO THE MORNING, AND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS MIX DOWN INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.
AT THE MOMENT, THERE IS UP TO A 30% TO 40% CHANCE OF ANY PORT
AROUND THE PITTSBURGH METRO TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
AS A SPOKE OF MID LEVEL PVA MOVES THROUGH; THIS UNCERTAINTY WAS
CAPTURED IN TEMPOS. THIS WILL GENERALLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TOWARDS FKL AND DUJ IN THE AFTERNOON, COVERAGE MAY
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THOUGH A LOW (<20%) CHANCE OF THUNDER
COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. OTHERWISE, VFR PREVAILS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR
RETURNS TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...22/LUPO
LONG TERM...22/LUPO
AVIATION...MILCAREK
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