872
FXUS61 KPBZ 290502 AAB
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
102 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. SHOWER AND STORM THREAT INCREASES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER
BY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
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NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SLOWLY RISING 500MB HEIGHTS TODAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT DRIFTS OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST.
AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES, THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WARM FRONT
FURTHER NORTH, ROBBING THE AREA OF ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING. A
SCATTERED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR TODAY WITH A
CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER,
THE WAVE WILL BE WEAK AND MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING.
THE REGION WILL BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR TODAY, SO EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NBM PROBS FOR
MAX T > 75 ARE 60 TO 100% SOUTH OF I-80, WILL BUMP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NBM MEAN.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- UNCERTAINTY TO SEVERE THREAT AND TIMING OF FRONT
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RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY AS A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL DRIVE NORTHEASTWARD
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTWARD DRIFTING RIDGE. DONT SEE
MUCH ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY, SO
WOULD THINK THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE INSTABILITY IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE (200-500 J/KG) WITH THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO. THE HEADACHE WILL BE THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
WHICH MAY LEAD TO A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY FOR A PORTION OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE BIG QUESTIONS COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONTS EASTERN PROGRESSION WILL SLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
WILL NOT EASILY GIVE WAY AND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SINCE WE EXPECT MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION TO BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE FRONT, IT MAY BE
TOO FAR WEST TO HAVE THAT MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE UNTIL VERY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EVEN MONDAY. THE OTHER ISSUE IS THAT MOST, IF
NOT ALL OF THE MODEL DATA, IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STABILIZE SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD FORCE THE CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT TO BE FORCED TO AN AREA WITH HIGHER BUOYANCY.
MODELS ARE PORTRAYING A SCENARIO WHERE THE CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN OHIO WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD KY AN TN, WHERE MUCH
MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL REST. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN OUTCOME
WHERE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GET
CLIPPED WITH STRONGER STORMS. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WHERE THEY
MAY IMPACT.
FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD AT A FASTER PACE
MONDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST
AND GIVE THE FRONT A PUSH. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY DOES EXIT TO
THE EAST MONDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DESTABILIZATION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, SO THE RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COOL-DOWN IS MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER WARM
UP BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH, WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED IN
THE WARM SECTOR. OF THE LOW, SAVE A COUPLE HOURS OF LINGERING
MVFR AT FKL AND DUJ. SATELLITE SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CLEARING WITH
BROKEN MID-LEVEL DECKS FILLING IN OVERNIGHT. AS THE SURFACE
DECOUPLES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP, 40KTS TO 50KTS OF SHEAR
IS EXPECTED IN A LOW JET OVERNIGHT, BEFORE THE MAIN AXIS DRIFTS
NORTH INTO THE MORNING, AND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS MIX DOWN INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.
AT THE MOMENT, THERE IS UP TO A 30% TO 40% CHANCE OF ANY PORT
AROUND THE PITTSBURGH METRO TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
AS A SPOKE OF MID LEVEL PVA MOVES THROUGH; THIS UNCERTAINTY WAS
CAPTURED IN TEMPOS. THIS WILL GENERALLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TOWARDS FKL AND DUJ IN THE AFTERNOON, COVERAGE MAY
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THOUGH A LOW (<20%) CHANCE OF THUNDER
COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. OTHERWISE, VFR PREVAILS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR
RETURNS TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...MILCAREK
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