731
FXUS61 KPBZ 300556
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
156 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH INCREASING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. A BRIEF BIT
OF DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN CHANCES GO ON THE RISE AGAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- RECORD MINT TEMPS SET AT PIT AND HLG
- SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES SUNDAY MORNING
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SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL WEST OF US AND CLIMBS THROUGH
THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT
WILL DRAG THE WARM FRONT FARTHER NORTH AND TIGHTEN THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAR ABOVE AVERAGE OVERNIGHT. PIT TIED ITS
DAILY RECORD FOR HIGHEST MINT AT 60F AND HLG BROKE THEIR RECORD
WITH 65F.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CAN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER 4AM. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUPPORTED BY A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE (PWATS 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) RIDING UP THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE IN PLACE OVERHEAD. WIDESPREAD SHOWERY ACTIVITY AND STOUT
CLOUD COVER GIVE LITTLE ROOM FOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY THE LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN THEN, EYEING
THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR CAPE YIELDS BETWEEN 200-400 J/KG IN THE
FAR WESTERN REACHES OF OUR CWA WITH A STARK DROP OFF BETWEEN
ZANESVILLE AND WHEELING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIKELY CROSSING
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL DRY SLOT LEAVES LITTLE ROOM FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- UNCERTAINTY TO SEVERE THREAT AND TIMING OF FRONT
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AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY EVENING, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDES
UP THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AND WILL HELP TO KICK OUR
SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD. DESPITE THIS MOVEMENT, EASTWARD
PROGRESSION MAY BE RATHER SLOW AS THE RIDGE WILL NOT EASILY GIVE
WAY AND THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN SOME 3 STATES TO THE
WEST.
THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT REMAINS, WHERE IS
THE SURFACE FRONT? MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AND THE FRONT MAY NOT ENTER THE WESTERN REACHES OF
OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 12AM MONDAY. THE BATTLE THEN BECOMES WHAT
KIND OF BUOYANCY IS LEFT OVER AND WILL THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZE
LIKE MANY MODELS SUGGEST. IF SO, THEN CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND COULD LEAD TO OUR
REGION SEEING LITTLE IMPACT. THE CONSISTENT PICTURE PAINTED BY
CAMS OVER THE LAST DAY HAS BEEN FOR CONVECTION TO CLIP THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BEFORE DIVING
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS KY/TN OVERNIGHT IN SEARCH OF HIGHER BUOYANCY.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR EXACTLY WHAT IMPACTS THE REGION WILL SEE
FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS
REMAIN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT AND THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY WHEN IT GETS HERE. IF THE FRONT IS BOTH FASTER AND
WE CAN FIND OURSELVES NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE OR BETTER FOR
CAPE THEN IT WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE TO GET SEVERE STORMS INTO
MUCH OF THE REGION. AS IT STANDS NOW THOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION (HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE WEST)
AND CARE NEEDS TO BE SHOWN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ALL HAZARDS
(DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO) OCCURRING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT PICKING UP SPEED NEAR SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS THE
ATTENDANT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE OH VALLEY. FASTER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING COULD SET UP A
FAVORABLE TIME WINDOW FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION TO AVOID THE BRUNT
OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS VERY STRONG
IN SHOWING MOST OF THE DESTABILIZATION MONDAY WELL EAST OF THE
RIDGES TOWARDS THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THIS LEAVES A NON-ZERO BUT LOW
CHANCE THAT IMPACTFUL SEVERE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG THE FRONT
BRIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REMAINDER OF OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COOL-DOWN IS MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
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DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. BOTH ARE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM CLIMBS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A WARM FRONT
BACK THROUGH THE REGION. THIS USHERS IN THE RETURN OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL.
THERE LOOKS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A BOUNDARY TO STALL ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING LATE-WEEK AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND ANY FURTHER WOBBLING OF THIS STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE EXPECTED IMPACTS BUT IT
LOOKS LIKELY THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE OH VALLEY IS IN FOR ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WATER IMPACTS. IT REMAINS
VERY EARLY TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THESE IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST
BUT CLUSTERED ANALYSIS OF LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES YIELD SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK WHERE THE CHANCE TO SEE >1 INCH OF RAINFALL IN
24HRS IS ABOVE 30% IN OUR REGION.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GENERAL VFR FORECAST FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL APPROACH ZZV AROUND 12Z AND BRING MVFR CIG/VIS. THIS RAIN
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS, REACHING PIT
AROUND 16Z. ONCE THE AREA OF RAIN EXITS TO THE EAST, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ARRIVES THIS EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FOR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH THE
EVENING ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED RESTRICTIONS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRING THE CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS. VFR RETURNS TUESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...22/MLB
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