623
FXUS61 KPBZ 301151
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH INCREASING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. A BRIEF BIT
OF DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN CHANCES GO ON THE RISE AGAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN COVERAGE LESSENS BY EARLY EVENING.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
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AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KNOT 850 MB JET AND A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTING ON A SEASONABLY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
PLUME ADVECTING IN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS WAS THE CASE
SATURDAY MORNING, DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASES, WHICH ARE STILL
HIGH, IS PRECLUDING MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN RATES WITH LITTLE
REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY. OUR MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS DEEPER
SATURATION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT ATOP A DEW POINT
DEPRESSION OF ~15 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL SATURATION FROM THIS BATCH
WILL HELP WITH THE NEXT ROUND MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OHIO
AND ARRIVING HERE LATER ON THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER FOCUSED AREA OF CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF AN
ADDITIONAL 850 MB JET WILL DRIVE THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN
ARRIVING AROUND 10AM OR SO INTO OUR EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES. MORE
OF THIS SHOULD REACH THE GROUND GIVEN ANTECEDENT SATURATION, BUT
WITH ALL THE MORNING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER, THERE WILL BE LITTLE
ROOM FOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN THEN, EYEING THE 75TH PERCENTILE
FOR CAPE YIELDS BETWEEN 200-400 J/KG IN THE FAR WESTERN REACHES
OF OUR CWA WITH A STARK DROP OFF BETWEEN ZANESVILLE AND
WHEELING. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE LIKELY CROSSING OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL DRY SLOT, LEAVES LITTLE ROOM FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOURLY RAIN RATES LOOK TO BE UNDER
CONTROL OVERALL WITH THE HREF MAX ONE HOURLY VALUES NOT TOPPING
AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AND THE MAX SIX HOURLY VALUES FROM
THROUGH 6PM AROUND HALF TO SIX TENTHS OF AN INCH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- UNCERTAINTY TO SEVERE THREAT AND TIMING OF FRONT
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AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY EVENING, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDES
UP THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AND WILL HELP TO KICK OUR
SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD. DESPITE THIS MOVEMENT, EASTWARD
PROGRESSION MAY BE RATHER SLOW AS THE RIDGE WILL NOT EASILY GIVE
WAY AND THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN SOME 3 STATES TO THE
WEST.
THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT REMAINS, WHERE IS
THE SURFACE FRONT? MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AND THE FRONT MAY NOT ENTER THE WESTERN REACHES OF
OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 12AM MONDAY. THE BATTLE THEN BECOMES WHAT
KIND OF BUOYANCY IS LEFT OVER AND WILL THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZE
LIKE MANY MODELS SUGGEST. IF SO, THEN CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND COULD LEAD TO OUR
REGION SEEING LITTLE IMPACT. THE CONSISTENT PICTURE PAINTED BY
CAMS OVER THE LAST DAY HAS BEEN FOR CONVECTION TO CLIP THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BEFORE DIVING
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS KY/TN OVERNIGHT IN SEARCH OF HIGHER BUOYANCY.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR EXACTLY WHAT IMPACTS THE REGION WILL SEE
FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS
REMAIN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT AND THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY WHEN IT GETS HERE. IF THE FRONT IS BOTH FASTER AND
WE CAN FIND OURSELVES NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE OR BETTER FOR
CAPE THEN IT WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE TO GET SEVERE STORMS INTO
MUCH OF THE REGION. AS IT STANDS NOW THOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION (HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE WEST)
AND CARE NEEDS TO BE SHOWN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ALL HAZARDS
(DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO) OCCURRING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT PICKING UP SPEED NEAR SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS THE
ATTENDANT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE OH VALLEY. FASTER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING COULD SET UP A
FAVORABLE TIME WINDOW FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION TO AVOID THE BRUNT
OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS VERY STRONG
IN SHOWING MOST OF THE DESTABILIZATION MONDAY WELL EAST OF THE
RIDGES TOWARDS THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THIS LEAVES A NON-ZERO BUT LOW
CHANCE THAT IMPACTFUL SEVERE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG THE FRONT
BRIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REMAINDER OF OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COOL-DOWN IS MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
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DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. BOTH ARE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM CLIMBS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A WARM FRONT
BACK THROUGH THE REGION. THIS USHERS IN THE RETURN OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL.
THERE LOOKS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A BOUNDARY TO STALL ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING LATE-WEEK AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND ANY FURTHER WOBBLING OF THIS STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE EXPECTED IMPACTS BUT IT
LOOKS LIKELY THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE OH VALLEY IS IN FOR ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WATER IMPACTS. IT REMAINS
VERY EARLY TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THESE IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST
BUT CLUSTERED ANALYSIS OF LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES YIELD SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK WHERE THE CHANCE TO SEE >1 INCH OF RAINFALL IN
24HRS IS ABOVE 30% IN OUR REGION.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
OBSERVATIONS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED FROM MOST SITES
ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY AND CLOUD BASES
STILL SIT AROUND 6-8KFT WITH LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS
WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN ON THE NOSE OF AN IMPINGING 40 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET.
EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME MORE RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS
BATCH AS THE EARLIER ONE AIDED IN SATURATING THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER. THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS REACHING ZZV AROUND 14Z AND PIT AROUND 16Z. MVFR PROBS
JUMP UP TO 60% WITH THIS ROUND OF RAIN BUT IFR PROBS REMAIN
LOWER. ONCE THIS BATCH EXITS TO THE EAST, A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
IS FAVORED UNTIL THE NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES LATE
THIS EVENING. SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH THE EVENING
ACTIVITY. A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE PROGRESSING ACROSS OHIO
TONIGHT, AND THERE'S UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR EAST IT WILL BE ABLE
TO HANG ON WITH UNFAVORABLE TIMING WELL AFTER SUNSET. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT IT HANGS ON AT LEAST TO SOME EXTENT WITH
VARYING AGGRESSIVENESS IN SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW, HAVE INTRODUCED
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CIGS AND TEMPO GROUPS
FOR IFR TSRA AT ALL SITES SAVE FKL/DUJ WHERE PROB30S SEEMED MORE
PRUDENT AS UNCERTAINTY IS THE GREATEST THAT FAR NORTH; IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONGEST PART OF WHAT REMAINS OF THE LINE IS
FARTHER SOUTH AS IT DIVES TOWARD THE PLUME OF HIGHEST
INSTABILITY. HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION
ARE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...MLB/AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...22/MLB
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