146
FXUS61 KPBZ 301709
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
109 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH INCREASING RAIN TODAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. A BRIEF BIT OF DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES GO ON THE
RISE AGAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN COVERAGE LESSENS BY EARLY EVENING.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
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THE SECOND PUSH OF RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A FOCUSED AREA OF CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF AN
ADDITIONAL 850 MB JET. HIGHER PWAT AIR UP TO 1.2" HAS ADVECTED
IN WITH THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WHICH IS RESULTING IN MORE
MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES, BUT WITH ALL THE MORNING CLOUD COVER,
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE ROOM FOR DESTABILIZATION. THIS LEAVES
LITTLE ROOM FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOURLY RAIN RATES LOOK TO BE UNDER CONTROL OVERALL WITH
THE HREF MAX ONE HOURLY VALUES NOT TOPPING AROUND TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH AND THE MAX SIX HOURLY VALUES FROM THROUGH 6PM AROUND
HALF TO SIX TENTHS OF AN INCH.
WIND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS WELL WITH MIXING INTO
THE LOW LEVEL JET. PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS >30 MPH SIT AROUND
60-70%. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL MUTE DAYTIME HEATING DESPITE
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND, BUT HIGHS WILL STILL TOP OUT AROUND
70 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY MORNING
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A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT PICKING UP SPEED NEAR SUNRISE ON MONDAY AS THE
ATTENDANT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE OH VALLEY. FASTER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING COULD SET UP A
FAVORABLE TIME WINDOW FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION TO AVOID THE BRUNT
OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER EARLY ON MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS VERY
STRONG IN SHOWING MOST OF THE DESTABILIZATION MONDAY WELL EAST
OF THE RIDGES TOWARDS THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THIS LEAVES A NON-ZERO
BUT LOW CHANCE THAT IMPACTFUL SEVERE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG THE
FRONT BRIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REMAINDER OF OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COOL-DOWN IS MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
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DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. BOTH ARE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM CLIMBS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A WARM FRONT
BACK THROUGH THE REGION. THIS USHERS IN THE RETURN OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL.
THERE LOOKS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A BOUNDARY TO STALL ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING LATE-WEEK AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND ANY FURTHER WOBBLING OF THIS STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE EXPECTED IMPACTS BUT IT
LOOKS LIKELY THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE OH VALLEY IS IN FOR ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WATER IMPACTS. IT REMAINS
VERY EARLY TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THESE IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST
BUT CLUSTERED ANALYSIS OF LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES YIELD SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK WHERE THE CHANCE TO SEE >1 INCH OF RAINFALL IN
24HRS IS ABOVE 30% IN OUR REGION.
AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
OBSERVATIONS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED FROM MOST SITES
ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY AND CLOUD BASES
STILL SIT AROUND 6-8KFT WITH LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS
WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN ON THE NOSE OF AN IMPINGING 40 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET.
EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME MORE RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS
BATCH AS THE EARLIER ONE AIDED IN SATURATING THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER. THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS REACHING ZZV AROUND 14Z AND PIT AROUND 16Z. MVFR PROBS
JUMP UP TO 60% WITH THIS ROUND OF RAIN BUT IFR PROBS REMAIN
LOWER. ONCE THIS BATCH EXITS TO THE EAST, A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
IS FAVORED UNTIL THE NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES LATE
THIS EVENING. SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH THE EVENING
ACTIVITY. A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE PROGRESSING ACROSS OHIO
TONIGHT, AND THERE'S UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR EAST IT WILL BE ABLE
TO HANG ON WITH UNFAVORABLE TIMING WELL AFTER SUNSET. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT IT HANGS ON AT LEAST TO SOME EXTENT WITH
VARYING AGGRESSIVENESS IN SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW, HAVE INTRODUCED
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CIGS AND TEMPO GROUPS
FOR IFR TSRA AT ALL SITES SAVE FKL/DUJ WHERE PROB30S SEEMED MORE
PRUDENT AS UNCERTAINTY IS THE GREATEST THAT FAR NORTH; IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONGEST PART OF WHAT REMAINS OF THE LINE IS
FARTHER SOUTH AS IT DIVES TOWARD THE PLUME OF HIGHEST
INSTABILITY. HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION
ARE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...88/AK
LONG TERM...88/AK
AVIATION...22/MLB
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