595
FXUS61 KPBZ 310427 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1227 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. A BRIEF BIT OF DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE
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A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLOUD TOPS WARMING
WITH THIS CONVECTION, WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THERE IS
STILL SHEAR IN PLACE, THOUGH RECENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WEST OF WHERE THE
CURRENT LINE IS, AS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS ENDED. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR FUTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SLOWLY ON MONDAY
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BY 6AM MONDAY MORNING, SHOWERS AND STORM WILL LIKELY STILL BE
ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT MAY BE POSITIONED
OVER CENTRAL OHIO, A NOTED DELAY DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
FIELD RUNNING PARALLEL ALONG THE FRONT.
IF THE FRONT PROGRESSIVES FASTER, THIS COULD SET UP A FAVORABLE
TIME WINDOW FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION TO AVOID THE BRUNT OF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER EARLY ON MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS VERY STRONG
IN SHOWING MOST OF THE DESTABILIZATION MONDAY WELL EAST OF THE
RIDGES TOWARDS THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THIS LEAVES A NON-ZERO BUT LOW
CHANCE THAT IMPACTFUL SEVERE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG THE FRONT
BRIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REMAINDER OF OUR REGION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT BY 6PM THE
FRONT WILL BE AT LEAST PASSED COUNTIES NORTHWEST AND WEST
OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY (MERCER/VENANGO/LAWRENCE/COLUMBIANA).
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AFTER WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COOL-DOWN IS MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
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DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. BOTH ARE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM CLIMBS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A WARM FRONT
BACK THROUGH THE REGION. THIS USHERS IN THE RETURN OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL.
THERE LOOKS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A BOUNDARY TO STALL ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING LATE-WEEK AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND ANY FURTHER WOBBLING OF THIS STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE EXPECTED IMPACTS BUT IT
LOOKS LIKELY THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE OH VALLEY IS IN FOR ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WATER IMPACTS. IT REMAINS
VERY EARLY TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THESE IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST
BUT CLUSTERED ANALYSIS. LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES YIELD SEVERAL DAYS
NEXT WEEK WHERE THE CHANCE TO SEE >1 INCH OF RAINFALL IN 24HRS
IS ABOVE 30% IN OUR REGION. THERE IS ALSO A NOTED 50% CHANCE OF
SOME RIVERS REACHING 'ACTION' STAGE, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN
PITTSBURGH.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL
PORTS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING TEMPO
RESTRICTIONS TO VIS/CIGS. MVFR CIGS ARE GENERALLY FAVORED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS LOOK
TO BE NON-RESTRICTIVE.
WIND GUSTS SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE BACKING RAPIDLY
ONCE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES, SO A SWITCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN/MLB
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...88/AK
LONG TERM...88/AK
AVIATION...22/MLB
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